Solar power is one of the cheapest energy sources worldwide, costing only $0.044 cents per kilowatt-hour, according to 2024 data from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). ,kWh) after a 90% decline in solar photovoltaic (PV) module prices in just 13 years.
Africa has so far been a small solar energy player: the entire continent has just over 18 gigawatts (GW) of installed capacity – just 1% of global solar PV. This is partly due to the lack of investment capital and pre-existing grid infrastructure.
But apparently, the tide is finally changing.
Huge influx of Chinese solar panels
An analysis of Chinese export data by British renewable energy think tank Amber indicates massive injection of solar equipment into Africa. In just 12 months, China shipped solar panels with a total capacity of 15 GW to the continent.
“Everyone in Africa is very excited about solar energy,” John van Zuylen, CEO of the Africa Solar Industry Association (AFSIA), a pan-African lobby group, told DW. Based on historical export data, AFSIA estimates Africa’s total installed solar capacity since 2000 at about 75 GW – significantly higher than the figure provided by IRENA. According to van Zuylen, many small-scale and off-grid applications rarely appear in official statistics.
“But if you take the number of 75 GW, 75 in 25 years, versus 15 GW in just 12 months, that gives you an idea of the pace that is happening in Africa at the moment.”
A large portion – about 3 GW – comes from a major project in Algeria. But Van Zuylen says several countries in sub-Saharan Africa are also gaining popularity, including Zambia, Rwanda, Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire and Nigeria.
“Nigeria is growing very strongly. And, I believe there is a possibility that Nigeria is soon going to be the number one solar opportunity in Africa – going over South Africa – because Nigeria has been running on diesel for many years, because the price of diesel was subsidized and artificially low,” Van Zuylen said. Solar is now the cheapest option for many Nigerians.
Also, new countries are emphasizing the solar market. For example, Liberia is trying to diversify its clean energy portfolio, which until now has relied mostly on hydropower. Emmanuel K., Executive Director of the Environmental Protection Agency of Liberia, on the sidelines of the United Nations COP30 in Brazil. Ure Yarkpavolo said the country’s first solar park is nearing completion.
“We have about 20 megawatts that will probably come online at the end of this (year), maybe early next year. It’s going very fast and there’s a lot more coming in the pipeline,” Yarkpavolo told DW.
Is there more to this than the US-China trade war?
Van Zuylen says there is a combination of factors behind the surge, while some commentators argue that the surge in exports from China is at least partly the result of the tariff standoff between Beijing and Washington. At some point, the Trump administration even threatened to impose a 3,521% tariff on solar panels from Southeast Asia.
“When the trade war started the cost of equipment went down. The Chinese were desperate to offload the goods,” Fawen Nyakudya, managing director of Zimbabwe-based PFN Solar Systems, told DW. “I would say it’s positive for us. The Chinese have no choice but to treat us well, because they know that if they treat us badly again, the next thing is that we won’t buy anything from them.”
According to World Bank data for 2023, 565 million people in sub-Saharan Africa still lack access to electricity. According to Kenyan economist James Shikwati, there is a great need for imported technology.
“Whether it’s coming from China, the US or Europe, I think African people would say, it’s great. And so I would indirectly say that the tariff war creates possibilities for African people to access cheaper energy,” Shikwati told DW.
India is also one of the solar equipment suppliers to Africa but importers prefer China due to lower prices.
Nyakudya believes Chinese sellers are already adapting to a new market reality – and curbing production to maintain profitability.
“There is a serious shortage, especially when you are looking at panels and lithium batteries. Many dealers and importers say they do not have panels at the moment. Offloading was done only for a short period, but now there is a serious shortage,” Nyakudya said.
Storage and net metering are making solar power more profitable
Lithium batteries have become affordable for private homes and utility-scale operators. Thanks to battery storage solutions, solar energy can be stored and used during evening peak hours.
Net metering, where homes with rooftop panels feed unused surplus energy packs into the grid in exchange for a refund on their electricity bills, is also paying off.
This could increase profitability fivefold, said Van Zuylen, CEO of AFSIA. “If you need to consume your solar energy whenever it’s being produced, typically you can only cover about 20% of your total electricity consumption. But if you have a net metering system, suddenly you can install panels to cover the equivalent of 100% of your consumption.”
Countries such as Kenya, Namibia and Zimbabwe have already implemented the system that has been in place for a long time in many European countries.
What about red tape and hidden costs?
In some instances, shipping costs and import taxes are still reducing profit margins significantly.
“If I will be charged 15%, obviously I will charge my customer as well,” Nyakudya said.
Countries like Zambia have zero-rated import taxes for solar products to encourage renewable energy. “For a shipment that you can import into Zimbabwe and pay up to $20,000 in VAT, you only pay $26 in Zambia,” he told DW.
Import tariffs are often designed to protect domestic industries from cheap imports. However, this is not the case with Zimbabwe.
“If we were manufacturing solar products ourselves, we would say, it is important to impose taxes so that we promote local companies. But we are not manufacturing, so why make it difficult for our people?” Nyakudya said.
Additional costs and bureaucracy may thwart solar expansion to some extent. But Van Zuylen believes the economics of solar power will continue to drive investment. He told DW about a recent project in Mauritius that combined solar panels and storage for just $0.07 cents per kilowatt.
“When you start getting to those kind of price points, you know, you make things happen. It becomes a no-brainer. You need power, you need it at a reasonable price – yes, you go for it.”
Tena Mansani in Belém contributed to this article.
Edited by: Benita Van Eysen
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