How will the latest sacking of a top aide affect Ukraine amid Russia war? | News


Kyiv, Ukraine – With his bear-like looks and tremendous strength, Andriy Yermak dominated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for years – literally and figuratively.

A former copyright lawyer who collaborated with District 95, a comic troupe that propelled Zelensky to stardom, Yermak, 54, became Ukraine’s “gray cardinal” after the former comedian won the 2019 presidential vote.

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While Zelensky’s chief of staff, Yermak played a larger role – he was widely regarded as Vice President and Deputy Prime Minister. A four-star general, he was a top peace negotiator and made strategic decisions about the war with Russia that led to disastrous miscalculations and losses.

Ihor Romanenko, former deputy chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, told Al Jazeera that Yermak “created a whole system of appointing people to state administration, ministries and military agencies”.

Such concentration of power turned Yermak into a seemingly unimaginative, Machiavellian figure as he gained notoriety among Ukrainian officials and top officials, Western leaders and diplomats for his indecisive behavior, unwillingness to compromise, and harsh dealings with subordinates.

And yet, Yermak’s team of negotiators managed to persuade Washington to remove some of the most controversial parts of the 28-point peace plan, which many in Ukraine and the West called a carbon copy of the Kremlin’s wish list.

But on Friday, Zelensky fired Yermak – after months of Western pressure and speculation about his role in a $100 million corruption scandal, followed by an hour-long search of his apartment and “30 minutes of abuse, reproaches and accusations”, according to a Ukrainian daily.

“Up until the last minute, Yermak did not believe that the First One (Zelensky) would fire him,” a government source told the Pravda outlet.

According to the daily report, the firing incident occurred after a consensus among prominent political figures, even those appointed by Yermak.

Zelensky diplomatically called the dismissal a “resignation.”

“I am grateful to Andriy for always representing Ukraine’s position on the negotiating track exactly the way it should be represented,” he said in a video address.

A few hours later, Yermak made a statement possibly taking aim at United States President Donald Trump.

“I’m going to the front lines and am prepared for any retaliation. I’m an honest and decent person,” he said in a text message he reportedly sent in English to a reporter for Trump’s favorite newspaper, the New York Post.

Some Ukrainians are still deeply pessimistic about daily blackouts, Russian air strikes, rising prices and political games amid pessimism about an end to the war.

“Corruption is a hydra,” said Taras Timoshchuk, a 43-year-old retired soldier who suffered wounds and injuries while fighting pro-Russian separatists in the eastern region of Donbass between 2015 and 2017.

“Yermak is the head we all knew. He has been cut down, but many more will grow in his place,” he told Al Jazeera.

But another disgraced figure – Tetiana Chornovol, a former lawmaker and journalist who was admitted after being accused of arson and premeditated murder – said she would let Yermak join her small squad as a drone operator.

According to the State Investigation Bureau of Ukraine, during the 2014 Ukrainian revolution, Kornovol attacked pro-Russian figures, inspired protesters to occupy City Hall and was said to have incited them to throw Molotov cocktails at the office of former President Viktor Yanukovych’s Party of Regions. The 57-year-old IT expert suffocated in the smoke.

“He will be a regular fighter without any past,” Chornovol wrote about Yermak on Facebook on Saturday.

However, self-imposed exile on the front lines does not make Yermak immune from the consequences that could arise from a major investigation into corruption schemes surrounding the state-controlled nuclear energy monopoly.

Now, Ukraine and its allies are considering the consequences of Yermak’s ouster, as well as speculating on his successor.

“The replacement will be quite painful,” Romanenko said.

Yermak was widely blamed for mismanaging Kiev’s negotiations with Moscow ahead of a full-scale invasion in 2022 – and for playing down the invasion, as he reportedly said he “didn’t believe it would actually happen”.

Yermak’s “defense plans were largely unrealistic and were not implemented”, Romanenko said.

Yermak also opposed drastic measures such as the massive mobilization of all men of fighting age and the imposition of martial law, which would “put the economy on a wartime track”, Romanenko said.

Yermak’s replacement must be proposed by the President but voted on by the Parliament.

A list of possible candidates already exists – Deputy Prime Minister Mikhailo Fyodorov, Defense Minister Denis Shmihal and Deputy Foreign Minister Serhiy Kislitsya.

Zelensky may also appoint a political stealth horse, an unknown with a military background and front-line experience, to appease top officials and average soldiers.

On Saturday, Zelensky reportedly met with the heads of military and intelligence agencies — and Pavlo Palisa, 40, a decorated colonel who graduated from the U.S. Military College in 2022, fought in the months-long battle for the eastern city of Bakhmut and became Yermak’s deputy in November 2024.

None of Yermak’s potential successors will have his reputation, notoriety and years-long personal relationship with the president – ​​and none is likely to regain his clout.

‘Corruption track is very useful for America’

However, the dismissal will benefit Kiev in the coming weeks amid the resumption of peace talks as Washington has lost an ace up its sleeve – Yermak’s alleged involvement in corruption schemes involving billions of dollars of Western aid.

“The corruption track in Ukraine was extremely useful for the United States from the point of view of putting pressure on Zelensky personally,” Kiev-based analyst Ihar Tishkevich told Al Jazeera.

Zelensky considered Yermak an irreplaceable ally and enforcer of his will — and Washington could use this to demand political concessions in exchange for keeping him, Tyshkevich said.

Yermak’s resignation removes the “blackmail format”, he said, while Ukrainian negotiators can say Kiev is about to restructure the decision-making process.

He said some Western partners were also “stressed” over Yermak’s decisions bypassing Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry.

“As paradoxical as it sounds, in the short-term perspective, (Yermak’s resignation) certainly strengthens Zelensky,” Tyshkevich said.

But by early 2026, whoever replaces Yermak will have to make “a number of right decisions” to further strengthen Zelensky, he said.

For now, the President faces an immediate dilemma.

He could choose to maintain the highly personalized system built by Yermak, Tishkevich said, or destroy it to allow those who once opposed Yermak to work with Zelensky.

Zelensky’s Servant of the People party formally dominates the Verkhovna Rada, the lower house of Ukraine’s parliament, but there is infighting and infighting there.



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