Two players in the NBA currently averaging at least 20 points, 9 rebounds, 7 rebounds and 1.5 steals per game. Nikola Jokic is one of the best players in the world. The other is Jalen Johnson, the Atlanta Hawks’ best player – yes, it’s official. Johnson looks to be an early contender for his first All-Star selection.
Who knows how the actual All-Star roster is going to shape up under this new formatBut know this: Johnson is an All-Star whether he gets an official designation or not. He made Hawks history in Sunday’s win against Charlotte.
Johnson is a legitimate freak athlete whose skills are on full display. With his size, speed, and ability to leap buildings in a single bound, it would be easy for him to get into trouble trying to create open spaces that aren’t there. His habit of playing fast without any hurry is like that of a superstar.
“That’s one thing I always remember (about Johnson),” a league scout told CBS Sports. “He covers the field with such ease; his head is always up. He’s never out of control. You talk about guys who look comfortable out there. He’s producing a bunch of high-level things, mostly right away. … I haven’t seen a lot of his stuff this year, but I guarantee (the Hawks) are thrilled with what he’s doing.”
Look at how composed Johnson is in this transition possession, he’s surveying the chess board as he’s pursuing the play so he can calmly fake the shot until he catches it, force the defender to cut and move downfield without a hint of haste in his step.
When the game is progressing slowly at this kind of pace for a player, watch out. Johnson is the central figure in an Atlanta attack that, at its best, is at full strength, forcing opponents into 16.8 turnovers per game (No. 5 league-wide) and shoving it down their throats on the other end (22.3 points less off turnovers per game, No. 3 league-wide).
That’s macro. But there are subtle dramas happening everywhere that speak to Johnson’s evolution as a star. Take, for example, the fake shot shown in the clip above. Defenders will have to pay attention now as Johnson is shooting 41.5% from 3, up from 31% last year. And even that number is falling due to Johnson’s 1-of-11 starts from 3 in his first five games. In his last 11 he is at 50% (21 of 42).
The same scout said of Johnson’s shooting, “I don’t know if he’ll stay above 40 (percent), but I don’t think it’s a fluke or anything.” “You could see his confidence (as a shooter) growing over the years. Again, I would use the word comfortable. … I think he probably still likes to drive it, but now he can beat you both ways.”
In fact, Johnson’s 130.2 points per 100 shots, per CTG, rank 13th among all players with at least a 25% usage rate. That’s basically the same as Giannis Antetokounmpo’s 130.6 and higher than some guys like Luka Doncic, Kevin Durant, Jalen Brunson, Devin Booker and Victor Wembanyama.
So now you’ve got a one-armed shooter and high-flying/freight-train finisher (only six players have scored more than Johnson’s 208 paint points, his 62 fast-break points ranked 12th league-wide and his 26 dunks ranked 17th) who is now equally capable of leading the break as a true point guard.
The 6-foot-8 Johnson is a terror as both a finisher and facilitator in the open field, but even for a team as run-rushing as Atlanta, more than 80% of its possessions are happening in the half court. If Johnson really wants to be No. 1, he’s going to have to be able to make plays in the crowd, and he’s proving more and more capable of doing that every night.
He can do this as an initiator:
He can do it as a roller:
Johnson’s 30.9 assist rate, per CTG, is a serious number. Only Giannis is posting big numbers among forwards. It seems blasphemous to put Johnson in the same category as Giannis and he certainly isn’t, but the similarities are there. You could call Johnson a poor man’s Giannis in the most complimentary way possible and you wouldn’t be wrong. It’s a bit like calling Alperen Sengun the poor man’s Jokic.
Speaking of Sengun, he is one of the best passing big men in the league. The Rockets get consistent offense through him, and he’s never posted a 30.9 assist rate. Neither are Domantas Sabonis and Bam Adebayo, two prototypical high-post hubs. It might be too much to say that Johnson is on prime Draymond Green levels in terms of his ability to outwit defenses as a one-step forward, but he’s not far off.
This ability to orchestrate the offense from different positions is a big change for a Hawks team that is used to Trae Young operating in a predictable and effective manner. With Young, as good as he is with the ball, you know what’s going to happen. He will have the ball on top. He’s going to run the pick and roll. He captained the Hawks last season to a 117.4 offensive rating when he was on the floor, almost the same exact rating Atlanta has posted this season with Johnson on and Young off, according to CTG.
So the offense remains more or less the same as it was at its peak strength with Young, but here’s the thing: Last season with Young, the Hawks posted a 116.8 defensive rating. This season, Atlanta is posting a 111.7 D-rating with Johnson and Young on the court, which would be a top-five mark.
In fact, since Young went down with a sprained MCL on October 29, the Hawks have been ranked as the seventh-best defense in the league. They have consistently been a bottom-tenth to bottom-fifth defense over the past three years with Young. And again, crime is not decreasing. The 118.4 rating since Young’s injury is almost identical to the numbers Atlanta has averaged with Young on the court at any time over the past three seasons.
It’s not just because of Johnson. The Hawks have added a number of good players, but the main thing is that they are all in Johnson’s mold – two-way guys with versatile size who don’t dominate defense and offense as one-trick pick-and-roll ponies.
Look around the league. The best teams serve as models for their best players. The Hawks are Johnson’s team. They miss Young’s ball handling and overall composition without a doubt, and there’s a reasonable world in which Young thrives upon his return with all this defense he and Johnson are working on at this level. But the Hawks can’t turn back into Young’s team. We’ve seen where that bus takes you. Play-in. And the Hawks were headed right back in that direction before Young got hurt. They were 1-3 before the injury and are 10-4 since (not including the win over Brooklyn in which Young only played seven minutes).
It will be interesting how it plays out when Young returns. By default, will he start controlling everything again? Will Raksha go back to tank? And if that happens, would the Hawks want to trade him? Is anyone even that interested in trading for him? He is up for a new contract this summer, but the Hawks have given no indication they are going to make him a max offer. And they should not do this. He is no longer their best player. That pride now belongs to Johnson.
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