For some contenders, like Ole Miss, their regular season resume is now complete, and what happens with a fifth-ranked ranking on Tuesday night should be a strong indicator of their final placing on Selection Day. Others, like Miami, are counting on hope and help — and most importantly, another win. It all started on Friday with the Egg Bowl – a game that not only kept Ole Miss in the playoff, but technically kept it in the SEC race.
That’s right, this thing isn’t over yet, so check back after each game to see how the results will impact the playoffs when the day comes.
Texas 27, Texas A&M 17
Rivalry week presented its first change in the top four when No. 16 Texas defeated No. 3 Texas A&M — but the fifth-ranked seed may not be all that upset. The Aggies will likely fall into the four to six range behind Georgia. The Bulldogs have better wins, including a 35–10 defeat of Texas. Georgia also has a better loss (to No. 10 Alabama) and now has clinched a spot in the SEC title game. The question is how far Texas A&M will fall as it joins No. 5 Texas Tech, No. 6 Oregon and No. 7 Ole Miss in the one-loss club. The Aggies entered the weekend with a significant lead over Texas Tech in both strength of record (23 to 56) and strength of schedule (1 to 10). It’s possible the committee reverses Georgia by moving the Aggies down just one spot, meaning they would still be in position to earn a first-round bye as the No. 4 seed. However, there will be vigorous debate over whether the Aggies, Texas Tech or Oregon, which recently impressed the committee by ranking in the top five in offensive and defensive efficiency, deserve the top seed. The problem for the Aggies is that they have to finish in the top four as an at-large team because they are out of the SEC title game.
Although Texas certainly has the best wins in the country, it probably won’t be enough to crack them into the top 10 as a three-loss team. Even with some upset over Texas, it’s unlikely the Longhorns will finish higher than No. 12.
Indiana 56, Purdue 3
Indiana clinched a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game with its win against rival Purdue, locking in a CFP bid and strengthening its chances of having a first-round bye on Selection Day. The Hoosiers, who have been the committee’s No. 2 team in each of the first four rankings, still have a chance to take the No. 1 spot in Tuesday’s rankings if Ohio State loses to Michigan. If Ohio State loses and Oregon wins, Indiana will face Oregon in the Big Ten title game. If Michigan wins and Oregon loses, the Hoosiers will face Michigan for the conference title.
The question is whether IU can retain a top-four seed and a first-round bye as the Big Ten runner-up. If Indiana lost the title game, the committee would consider where its opponent was ranked and how close the game was. The Hoosiers will also be compared with other top one-loss teams, but playing a ranked opponent in the conference championship game – win or lose – will boost IU’s record strength by the committee’s metrics.
Georgia 16, Georgia Tech 9
Georgia should maintain its spot as the committee’s top one-loss team after a win against rival Georgia Tech. Georgia’s win against Ole Miss on October 18, as well as its win at Tennessee and loss to Texas impressed the committee. The Bulldogs’ continuity on offense and defense has also served them well by committee. Georgia’s first-round bye would only be in doubt if it finished as the two-loss SEC runner-up.
Barring an unusual combination of ACC results, No. 23 Georgia Tech will miss the playoff at 9–3. The only way the Yellow Jackets can boost their playoff hopes is through the ACC Championship Game. According to ESPN Analytics, he entered the weekend with a 1.5% chance of making the game.
Ole Miss 38, Mississippi State 19
With its win against rival Mississippi State on Friday, Ole Miss has perhaps clinched a playoff berth and remains in strong position to host a first-round home game. If Alabama loses to Auburn on Saturday, Ole Miss will clinch a spot in the SEC Championship Game. However, even if that doesn’t happen, the one-loss Rebels should still be a CFP lock.
As for the uncertainty still surrounding coach Lane Kiffin, the selection committee could consider it if Ole Miss turns to an interim head coach for the playoffs. The CFP protocol states that the group will “consider other relevant factors such as the unavailability of key players and coaches, which may have affected the team’s performance during the season or possibly its post-season performance.” Ole Miss won’t miss the playoffs because Kiffin left for another job, but it could drop a spot or two if the committee believes the team won’t be the same without him.
Utah 31, Kansas 21
No. 13 Utah punctuated its resume with a win against 5-7 Kansas, but the teams above it are still unlikely to reach the playoff without several upsets — especially after being leapfrogged by No. 12 Miami in the latest CFP rankings. Even with a win, Utah still needs to lose to Texas Tech and win over BYU and Arizona State to reach the Big 12 Championship Game. The Utes’ best hope of reaching the CFP still lies as an at-large team.
It is not unimaginable to receive that bid if a combination of two losing teams above them lose. If Oklahoma, Alabama and Miami lose, it will be difficult for any of them to remain in the top 12 as three-loss teams. Utah would need to lose at least two of those games to get into the top 10, which is essentially what it takes to get a seed in the region. The No. 11 and No. 12 teams will be eliminated during the seeding process this year to make room for the fourth and fifth highest-ranked conference champions.
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