Counting of votes is halted due to technical problems in the results website. According to the latest counts in the November 30 election, right-wing candidate Nasri Asfura had a slight lead, although the race remains effectively a “technical tie” and no official winner has yet been declared.
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Trump has publicly supported Asfura and threatened to cut off United States aid to Honduras if his preferred candidate does not win. He has also accused the CNE of “trying to change” the result by calling it a “technical glitch” at this stage, and doubled down on vague threats of retaliation in posts published on his Truth social platform.
Observers claim it is the latest example of Trump’s efforts to interfere in the internal affairs of other countries – many of which are in South America.
Who are the main candidates, and what do they stand for?
Asfura, 67, of Honduras’s right-wing National Party, campaigned on promises of economic stability, foreign investment and a tough security stance.
Trump has expressed his support for Asfura in a Truth Social post, calling him “the only real friend of freedom in Honduras” and urging people to vote for him.
Asfura’s main rival, 72-year-old Salvador Nasralla, is running under the banner of the Liberal Party and positions himself as a centrist reformer focused on restoring the rule of law and fighting corruption.
Rixi Moncada, the candidate of the leftist ruling party, Liberty and Refoundation, presents herself as a defender of President Xiomara Castro’s left-leaning legacy.
Moncada, 60, has proposed “democratizing the economy” by expanding credit, strengthening national production and creating an economic model that generates “real opportunities for all.” He has also proposed changes to the constitution to promote judicial reform in an effort to fight corruption.
Moncada said during the campaign, “Our fight against corruption is direct and without fear. To reform the justice system, there is only one way: gaining a majority in Congress.”
Throughout the campaign, polling has suggested a fragmented electorate with no clear favorite, setting the stage for the tight vote count now looming.
How has Trump involved himself in this election?
Trump pledged that there would be “hell to pay” in Honduras if election officials tampered with the results of the vote. He has threatened to cut off US aid to the country if his preferred, right-wing candidate does not win.
Trump has not specified exactly what aid he would suspend, but the US provides a large package of economic, development and security assistance each year to Honduras, which has a population of about 11 million.
The US President has also shown favor to Juan Orlando Hernandez, the former president of Honduras and a member of the country’s right-wing National Party, by pardoning his conviction in a US drug case and releasing him from a 45-year prison sentence. On Monday, Hernandez was released from the USP Hazleton high-security facility in West Virginia in the US.
He was extradited to the US in 2022 and in 2024 he was found guilty of conspiring to import cocaine into the US and possessing a machine gun. Justifying his decision to pardon him, Trump said Hernandez had been “treated very harshly and unfairly” in a social media post on Friday.
What aid does the US provide to Honduras?
In 2024, the US will provide just under $193.5 million in aid to Honduras, according to government data.
According to the US State Department website, much of it flowed through the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and through programs aimed at supporting small businesses, strengthening local governance, improving the agricultural sector, and expanding education and health services. Approximately $10 million was paid directly to the government of Honduras.
USAID was shut down by the Trump administration earlier this year. It is unclear how that portion of the aid will be distributed in the future.
Another key pillar is security cooperation through the US State Department and the Central America Regional Security Initiative, which trains police, supports anti-drug campaigns, and funds youth and community-violence-prevention initiatives.
These programs are deeply embedded in the security and social infrastructure of Honduras. According to experts, the sudden cuts could hamper everything from the ability of the police to function to the basic work done by NGOs.
What would be the impact on Honduras if Trump cut off aid?
For one of the poorest countries in the region – and a major source of migration to the Americas – the aid is not merely symbolic. It supports vital state actions in areas where violence, poverty and climate disasters drive migration.
Experts and rights groups warned earlier this year that a sudden cut in funding to Honduras would increase insecurity, weaken already strained public services and accelerate migration.
Nearly 30,000 Hondurans have been deported from the US since Trump returned to office in January, according to Honduran government data. The ban has dealt a severe blow to the country, where remittances sent by workers abroad accounted for about 25 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) last year.
Is this another example of Trump’s interference in the affairs of South American countries?
Trump’s comments about the election in Honduras fit a broader pattern that observers say they have seen this year. He has publicly pressured governments or sided with specific opposition parties in several countries, most notably in Venezuela.
In Venezuela, Trump has been accused of attempting “regime change” against the government of President Nicolas Maduro through a military campaign against Venezuelan boats in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific, which the Trump administration claims are drug trafficking.
Since September 2, US forces have launched at least 21 attacks on boats, killing more than 80 people. Trump says that he has not ruled out military action even from the ground. However, the US has not shown evidence of drug trafficking.
The US has also built up a massive military presence in the Caribbean, claiming it is necessary for national security and to stop the “invasion” of Venezuelan drug gangs.
Maduro has accused the US government of “plotting a new eternal war” against him.
In Brazil, Trump publicly questioned the validity of criminal coup charges against former President Jair Bolsonaro earlier this year, bolstering Bolsonaro’s claims of political persecution and suggesting the country’s courts were being used to sideline America’s right-wing ally. Bolsonaro was ultimately sentenced to 27 years in prison.
The US President’s comments were heavily criticized by Brazilian lawmakers, who claim he is attempting to delegitimize their institutions.
This year, Trump has also said that Mexico is “run by cartels” and has blamed the Mexican government for fentanyl trafficking. He has threatened to increase trade tariffs if the government does not extradite anyone involved and has also hinted at US military action.
In Argentina, Trump lavished praise on right-wing, populist President Javier Miley and said the US would “not waste our time” helping Argentina if Miley’s party does not win future elections. Argentina is not scheduled to hold presidential elections until 2027, but Trump said the US would feel “very different” about supporting the country if “a socialist wins.”
Following Trump’s threats on aid, Miley’s party won legislative elections in October with more than 40 percent of the vote.
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