If you ask basketball fans today who is the most influential basketball player in the world, 99% of them will tell you it is Nikola Jokic (nicknamed “The Joker”). He is a machine. He tops the league leaderboards for every important statistic: scoring, rebounds and assists. He has won three MVP awards and one NBA championship. And his age is 30 years.
But practically no one expected this.
expert nba scouts Had this to say about Jokic on draft day:
“Jokic’s performance isn’t spectacular as he is a below-average athlete, so he needs to focus on utilizing his skill set and working as an efficient shooter and passer within a system.”
Jokic grew up in Serbia and did not go to college. And, if you’re not familiar, it looks like this:
Jokic was the 41st pick in the 2014 NBA draft. His name was announced at the draft in the middle of a Taco Bell commercial.
The first 40 players were selected from the greatest players the world has ever seen. More than half the players selected before him are not even in the league anymore.
On all this I ask – how?
How did all the NBA scouts and reporters miss this? How did this not occur to all the experts in the world using all the NBA data?
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The Jokic story, as crazy as it is, isn’t particularly unique. Tom Brady, the greatest and winningest quarterback of all time in the history of the National Football League, was the 199th pick in the 2000 NFL Draft. (There were 253 selections in total.)
The reverse is also the case. In the NFL, about 50% of first-round picks are wasted: players who flop and only last a few years in the league.
Selecting players is difficult, as it is difficult to predict how people will develop over time. And sometimes, people who don’t look very good end up becoming stars. But if you can predict correctly, it is extremely valuable: a great pick can transform a team and establish dominance for years or even decades.
Of course, teams know this, so they spend millions of dollars to get their picks right. Scouts, data, analysis. And, yet, they do not achieve greatness even half the time.
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Most of what I wrote above can also be said for hiring. Hiring great people is hard, but also extremely valuable. This can lead a company to dominance for years or even decades.
We all know this. Any smart investor or founder you talk to will tell you how important employees are; How are the people who make up the company? So it’s pretty strange that, compared to most professional sports teams, most companies don’t take recruiting seriously at all.
Instead, companies do something close to the minimum level. Post a job opportunity, ask around in their networks, mix in boilerplate behavioral and technical reviews, and then extend an offer. That’s it.
Then again, it should come as no surprise that there are so many companies Probably about 80% of their teams could be sacked And still okay. It shouldn’t be surprising when you join a company and realize that most of your coworkers are incompetent. Using an average software product shouldn’t be surprising. The teams are mediocre!
Because if NBA teams can spend millions and still not see Jokic coming; If NFL teams had all the data and still missed over half of their first-round picks; Well, you better believe that most companies don’t make good hires more than a few percent of the time.
For solution? The best answer is probably to try harder. like, 10 times hardertrace who workedConsider running a performance test,
Whatever you do, I would encourage you to do it: You won’t want any other company to hire Jokic.
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