The question has become more pronounced following reports that lawmakers from the European People’s Party (EPP), the dominant force on the European centre-right, have coordinated with far-right groups ahead of key votes on migration policy, including proposals for so-called “return hubs”, deportation centers outside the EU.
The significance of the reports is not just that the far right voted with the centre-right, but that there may have been prior contact, agreement on wording, and efforts to muster a joint majority. The real story may extend beyond a controversial vote. This depends on whether the EPP is developing a new governing habit: working with the pro-European center when possible and turning to the far right when useful.
a massive change
Nicolai von Ondarza, an expert on EU institutions at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), argues that this is not just a one-off case. This indicates a structural change in the functioning of Parliament. “The EU is moving in the direction of a minority government in the European Parliament,” he told DW. In his view, the EPP is increasingly choosing between two possible majorities: the traditional pro-European coalition with socialists and liberals, and, in increasing numbers, a majority with parties to its right.
This does not mean that Parliament has become completely organized. Ondarza emphasizes that more than 80% of decisions are still taken by the mainstream pro-European majority. But, he says, the key change is that the right-wing alternative is no longer taboo. “It’s still the exception, but an exception that is occurring more frequently.”
Sophia Russack, research fellow at the Brussels think-tank CEPS, adds. She says the latest reports only confirm what many in Parliament already suspected. “This is the new normal,” he told DW in an interview.
Russak highlighted an apparent discrepancy in media reactions between Germany and the rest of Europe. In his reading, the German uproar says a lot about a country where the firewall still holds political power compared to the mood elsewhere in Europe, where cooperation with the far right is no longer as shocking.
just a coincidence?
For both analysts, there is an important distinction between casual overlap and active collaboration. The EPP has long defended itself by saying it cannot prevent far-right parties from voting the same way it does. But Ondarza says there is growing evidence that something more deliberate is going on behind the scenes, including coordinated wording and efforts to win a majority.
Rasaq underlines this collusion. “You can’t stop them from voting their way,” he said. “But of course you can write the amendment in such a way that they will support you.”
This matters because it changes the political meaning of the alliance. In the European Parliament, there is no government–opposition binary like in many national parliaments. Most are often collected file by file. But if legislation is drafted with far-right support in mind, or if parliamentary actors negotiate with those parties in advance, the connection is no longer contingent. It becomes strategic.
Will the centre-right’s reputation take a hit?
This strategy could strengthen the EPP in the short term, as it could choose its legislative partners on the left and the right. Ondarza says the 2024 European elections markedly change the parliamentary arithmetic and give the centre-right more room to maneuver. But he also warns that it comes at a cost.
One risk is practical: the more often the EPP veers to the right, the less willing the socialists and liberals may be to cooperate on the many documents where they still need them. This could result in a more unstable and unpredictable EU.
The second risk is political: if the centre-right increasingly legitimizes the far right as a partner, it could empower forces that seek to not only influence policy but reshape the political character of the EU. He argues that the deeper danger is that anti-liberalism and anti-pluralism actors gain more power to redefine what they want for Europe.
He also issued a warning that has already been voiced by many member states: Mainstream conservatives may think they are controlling the far right by borrowing their support, but instead they may be strengthening a rival that could one day overtake them. In plain words: Conservatives risk sidelining themselves.
increasing validity
Rusack makes a similar point from within the institutional logic of parliament. The far right has long had seats, speaking time and publicity in Brussels and Strasbourg. What is changing now, he argues, is that it is increasingly able to shape outcomes, thereby increasing its legitimacy. “It’s one thing to vote in Parliament. It’s another thing to shape decisions.”
She gives the example of migration, where terms and conditions that once seemed politically unthinkable have been embraced by the centre-right. But the matter goes beyond migration. Once the far right becomes a long-term source of support for the center-right, it stands to gain, both experts agree. Such development allows it to influence the language, priorities and boundaries of European policy.
Edited by: Jess Smee
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