Recently, top creators have started using more drastic-looking thumbnails for their videos. AI has made it much easier to create polished thumbnails, so top creators are using what Hwang calls “poorly made thumbnails” to help videos stand out.
Hwang told me something surprising: Even as AI makes it easier for creators to create thumbnails themselves, business has never been better for thumbnail artists, even at the bottom. He said demand has increased because “AI has lowered the barriers to content creation overall, and there is now a flood of more creators.”
Still, Hwang doesn’t expect the good times to last forever. “I don’t think AI will completely dominate for the next three years. That’s my estimated timeline.”
Everyone I spoke to had different answers as to when—if ever—AI would meaningfully disrupt their part of the industry.
Some, like Hwang, were pessimistic. Actor Eric Passoza told me he thinks big movie studios like Warner Bros. or Paramount will be gone in three to five years.
But others were more optimistic. “I don’t think verticals are ever going to go completely AI,” said Vertical drama actor Tess Dinerstein. Even if it turns out to be technically feasible, he argued, “it doesn’t seem to be what people want.”
Independent filmmaker Gil Clabin thought there would always be a place for high-quality humanitarian films. If someone’s work is “fundamentally derivative”, they are at risk. But he believes the best man-made work will still endure. “I don’t know how AI can replace the borderline divine element of consciousness,” he said.
Those who were most optimistic about AI were also the least optimistic about their career prospects. “I think at a certain point it won’t matter,” Kavan Cardoza told me. “It would be like anyone on the planet could just type a few sentences” to create complete, high-quality videos.
This may explain why Asseturo has become an AI evangelist; His newsletter tries to teach other filmmakers how to keep up with the coming AI revolution.
AI is “a tsunami that will wipe out everyone,” he told me. “That’s why I’m distributing surfboards – teaching people to surf. Do whatever you want with it.”
Kai Williams is a reporter for Understanding AI, a Substack newsletter founded by Ars Technica alumnus Timothy B. Lee. His work is supported by a Tarbell Fellowship. Subscribe to Understanding AI to get more from Tim and Kai.
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