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Most people in Germany do not think Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s coalition government will last until the next election in 2029.

According to a survey published by image Conducted by the newspaper and INSA, 54% of respondents said they think the coalition government, which includes Merz’s conservative CDU/CSU bloc and the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), will fall before the end of its legislative term.

29% of those surveyed said they were confident the coalition government would survive, while 11% of respondents did not answer.

INSA’s representative survey involved interviews with more than 1,000 eligible voters between November 21 and 24.

The majority of supporters of Merz’s conservative bloc (56%) believed that the coalition would survive.

The survey comes amid tensions within the coalition over planned pension reforms.

The government’s reform plans for Germany’s pension system, which faces challenges inherent in an aging society, have also come under criticism from within Merz’s conservative faction.

At the heart of the issue is an agreement by conservatives and the centre-left to boost pensions to the current level of 48% of the average earner’s income by 2031.

Over the past few weeks, the government has come up with a legislative proposal for the pension system and plans to get it passed by Parliament in December.

However, the youth organization of the CDU/CSU has called on young conservative MPs not to approve the pension package in its current form, arguing that it is too expensive and places an unfair burden on young workers and future generations.