The Matchup: New Jersey Devils (15-7-1) @ Buffalo Sabers (9-10-4)
broadcast: MSG, Devil’s Radio Network
On Thanksgiving Eve, the Devils are hosting the moribund St. Louis Blues. It took overtime, but Simon Nemec came up big again in a 3-2 OT win at The Rock. Timo Meyer and Nico Hischier were the other goal scorers, while Jacob Markstrom got the win, stopping 21 of 23 shots.
Buffalo was also in action on Wednesday and lost 4-2 to the Pittsburgh Penguins. Jason Zucker and Jack Quinn led the Sabers with a goal and an assist each, while Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen made 15 saves on 18 shots.
Starting strong, but finishing fast
New Jersey’s win on Wednesday was similar to its win over the Detroit Red Wings on Monday. At 5-on-5, the Devils won the scoring chances and high-danger chances battles in the first period Monday, 15-6 and 8-2, respectively, according to Natural Stat Trick. Wednesday’s opening frame was even better, with the Devils leading scoring chances by a staggering 18-3 margin while taking high danger chances 7-1.
However, it was all downhill from there. After the first period on Monday, New Jersey lost the Scoring Chance battle 21-10 and the High Danger battle 9-3. Then on Wednesday, the Devils were outshot 7-5 in scoring chances and 3-0 in high danger chances after the first period. You read that right: A team that posted seven high-danger chances in the first period couldn’t muster a single HDCF at 5-on-5 the rest of the period. To be fair, the even strength number will look better for New Jersey given how Wednesday’s overtime period went. Still, it was discouraging to see the Devils fade so badly after stellar first-round performances in their last two contests. Whatever problems this team faced in starting games on time, the previous two contests were a stark contrast.
So one of the overall goals for today’s game should be simple: find a way to put together a full 60 minutes of effort. Against a Buffalo team that entered the NHL below .500, the Devils (emphasis added.) Needed) be able to do so. Then again the Blues have been one of the worst teams in the league this season and New Jersey couldn’t do the same against them, so who knows.
I can’t stress enough how important it will be for the Devils to have Jacob Markstrom playing good hockey again. His struggles this season (and battle with injuries) have been well-documented, and for good reason. The guy who had just been given a two-year extension by general manager Tom Fitzgerald was starting to look like a real concern, with Jake Allen slowly taking over 1A duties for an ineffective Markstrom.
But this week, Markstrom has been much better. On Monday he stopped 32 of 35 shots, and on Wednesday it was 21 of 23. Add that up and you have 53 saves on 58 shots, good for a cumulative save percentage of .914. And lest you think he was facing a bunch of perimeter beach balls over the last two games, the natural stat trick helped him save 2.08 goals-against expectations on Monday and a 0.26 GSAA on Wednesday. Sure, Wednesday’s numbers tell us they basically did their job, but coming out a little ahead on GSAA is still a nice job. But it was Monday where Markstrom really shined, especially in the third period, where Detroit posted a 2.07 expected goals against in all situations, according to NST. He was on the hook when the Devils needed him on the hook. Without Markstrom’s stellar performance, New Jersey cannot break its three-game losing streak.
So does this mean Markstrom is back? Of course, the answer is that it’s too early to tell. Two great games is encouraging, but we’ll need more sample size to determine if the Devils’ 1A is back in prime form. We don’t even know if Markstrom actually gets the start today, but with this being the front end of a back-to-back, we’ll almost certainly see Markstrom again at some point in the next two days. And when we see him, I’d love to see him have his third consecutive great game.
Devils captain Nico Hischier started the season very well, but then went through a prolonged slump in which he was unable to perform well and win his matches (case in point, he scored one goal in 14 games from October 18 to November 15). Even the greatest players have to go through droughts from time to time, it happens. But what made it especially worrisome was that he was going through his slump when New Jersey’s other star center, Jack Hughes, went down with an injury. If Hughes was going to be on the shelf for a few months, Hischier was, in fact, In fact He needed to find his game again, or the Devils could be in serious trouble.
Over his last seven games, Hischier has started to look like himself again. He has five goals and 10 points in those seven games, great production. Perhaps just as encouraging, Hischier is again inspiring plays against top competition, too.
New Jersey’s center depth behind Hischier is still dangerously thin, so while he’s contributing in a major way, he can’t do it all. Still, the Devils have endured without Hughes, which is a great accomplishment considering how big of a blow Hughes’ injury was. And while there have been plenty of contributors who have helped Hughes since his injury, in my opinion, Hischier is at the top of the list.
This is shaping up to be another lost season in upstate New York. The Sabers enter this game as one of only five teams ranked below .500 in the NHL. In a league with a losing streak, that’s very difficult to do.
So how did they reach this point? Mostly due to mid game and some bad luck. The Sabers have given up 79 goals so far, which is tied for seventh-most in the league. Their starter, Alex Lyon, hasn’t actually been that bad this season, posting a .907 save percentage in his 12 games. However, it didn’t really help Buffalo much, as despite those respectable stats he was still just 3-5-3. But when Lyon doesn’t start, the Sabers are really in trouble. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has been Buffalo’s go-to guy the past few seasons, but in seven games so far, he has posted a poor save percentage of .891. Kolten Ellis has started the remaining three games Buffalo has played, and he hasn’t been much better with a .896 SV%.
Taking a look at some of the 5-on-5 numbers in Natural Stat Trick, it looks like the defense is running smoothly:
Corsi vs. Per 60: 62.08 (28th in the league)
Shots against per 60: 28.96 (26th)
Scoring chances per 60: 26.09 (15th)
High threat Corsi per 60: 11.04 (15th)
Expected goals per 60: 2.6 (14th)
Other than the Corsi Against and Shots Against numbers, Buffalo hasn’t been that weak defensively. This would lead me to believe that goaltending has been by far the biggest culprit in allowing so many goals. After all, we just saw how the non-Lyon goaltenders on this team have had a save percentage below .900 this season, so it’s got to be the goals, right? Well according to NST…not really? Lyon is in the black in goals saved above expected, and Luukkonen and Ellis are actually not far below the breakeven mark.
What are we to make of this? Maybe it’s like this: According to MoreHockeyStats.com, the Sabers have allowed a league-leading nine empty-net goals. In other words, it seems like Buffalo has been in a lot of close games of late, and they’ve really struggled to not only find the equalizer, but keep the opponent out of their empty net.
So in the end, I would say don’t let Buffalo’s bad goaltending numbers fool you. This is a team that is reasonable defensively, while not being the ’85 Bears. Empty-net goals really make things worse.
Meanwhile, the Sabers are led by several of the usual suspects: Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch are tied for the team lead with 21 points each (12 goals for Thompson, eight goals for Tuch). Rasmus Dahlin, who has been going through a very difficult past few months due to his fiancée’s major health concerns, is back on the ice and tallied 16 points (albeit only one goal). It’s very, very impressive that Dahlin is performing at the level he is considering all that his family has been going through recently. Best wishes to Karolina Matovac in her recovery from heart problems.
The gameplan for the Devils against the Sabers should be to hold off the big boys, play structured, and hope they enter the last few minutes of the third with a lead, considering how bad the Sabers have been at 6-on-5 this season.
What are you expecting from today’s game? What kind of changes would you like to see? What are you expecting from the Sabres? As always, thanks for reading!
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