Joe Burrow’s return
Joe Burrow had 820 passing yards in two games against Baltimore last season. That is not a typo. The Bengals will be grateful to have their franchise QB back on Thanksgiving after losing their last nine games. Even though the Bengals aren’t winning, Flacco has been able to produce for fantasy stars in Cincinnati. Pass protection has often been criticized, but Flacco’s timing to throw has been one of the fastest in the league, helping him get sacked only 1.5 times per game.
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Burrow is one of the best at creating explosive plays for his teammates, but he often takes more sacks as a result. The Ravens defense has made a tremendous comeback this season. After starting 32nd in scoring before the bye, they are No. 1 in the NFL. However, his sack rate still remains relatively low at a bottom-10 rate. If the Bengals can get the ball out quickly against this defense and let their playmakers (primarily Ja’Marr Chase) work, then Cincinnati can break down this suddenly strong defense. Keep an eye on the injury to Ravens S Kyle Hamilton, as his usage has been a key factor in the success of the Ravens’ secondary and defense after the bye.
quinnan williams effect
The Cowboys had a problem and they found the answer. The defense may not be perfect, but Quinnen Williams is doing his best to fix it. Through the first 10 weeks of the season, the Cowboys’ rushing defense ranked 28th in yards before contact per attempt. In their two games since trading for Williams, the Cowboys are in first place. Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty had eight carries for 13 yards and Eagles RB Saquon Barkley had 11 carries for 30 yards.
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It’s surprising the cowboys are no more He Bad against strong production early in the season. They have been terrible as receiving backs, but in terms of rushing fantasy production for RBs, they are very close to average. Since dominant RBs rely primarily on short-field rushing production, they become far more risky, TD-dependent plays than originally anticipated. The Cowboys defense has not allowed a TD to a RB in three consecutive games. It will be much easier to take advantage of Dallas through the air than by land on Thanksgiving Day.
Lions offense vs. Green Bay
Since Dan Campbell took over playcalling in Week 10, Jahmir Gibbs has the third-highest fantasy RB volume. David Montgomery is ranked 46th. The pair have become a one-man show lately and will likely be the same on Thanksgiving. Montgomery has scored double-digit fantasy points in only one of his last six games, making him nearly unstoppable against the Packers defense that shut out the Lions in Week 1.
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The majority of receiving yards in Week 1 came via running backs and tight ends, with Gibbs and Sam LaPorta combining for 19 targets. No one has allowed less explosive passing plays than Green Bay this season, setting up Gibbs for another high-volume day through the air in a short-passing attack without LaPorta available. With the Packers’ defense remaining strong relative to play-action passing, it could be a better day for Amon-Ra St. Brown on quick throws than it is for Jameson Williams on the outside.
baltimore passing attack vs bengals
Baltimore’s passing attack is in desperate need of a bounce-back spot and Thursday night provided just that. Cincinnati is allowing the most passing yards per game this season, but more importantly, it has been historically bad against TEs. Lamar Jackson and his TE duo could take advantage in Baltimore. Mark Andrews has a TD in four of his last five complete games against the division rival Bengals. Isaiah Probable, who hasn’t had a double-digit performance this season, had two touchdowns in his one matchup against the Bengals last season.
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The Ravens have the second-highest turnover rate in the NFL at 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TE). So far this season, the Bengals rank last in TE receiving yards at 15 yards per game, but what’s worse is that they have allowed 13 TDs on the year on tight ends…the next worst is seven. Jackson hasn’t been himself lately, with only one TD in the last three games. If it’s anything like last year vs. Cincinnati (four passing TDs in each game), the Ravens’ TE duo, along with Jackson himself, are in for a treat.
Bijan Robinson in the new Falcons offense
The Falcons ran 13 personnel (1 RB, 3 TE) on a historically high 60% of plays in Week 12. It didn’t work for Bijan Robinson. The Falcons’ star RB had 10 carries for 17 yards and zero targets, not ideal for a three TE set receiving running back. This was a key part of why Robinson only had five total targets in his two games with Kirk Cousins this season. This is extremely important for Robinson among all running backs, as he ranks second in fantasy PPG while only ranking 14th in rushing fantasy points.
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The Jets defense has yet to allow a RB to gain 50 receiving yards this season, with no more than six targets a game at the position because they often play from behind. Surprisingly, the Jets defense has been strong without Quinnen Williams for the most part. In their three games without their former star DT, New York has held RBs to less than 3.5 yards per carry in all three games. Bijan will have to rely on what Derrick Henry and Trevion Henderson have relied on over the last two weeks, multiple rushing touchdowns on a heavy rushing volume, to have a great day of his own.
torture site for rams
The Rams’ passing attack hasn’t been much of a hit this season and the Panthers are missing two key components to get close. The first is pressure. Carolina ranks 30th in pressure rate this season, giving the Rams’ pass protection the No. 1 advantage heading into the week. Putting pressure on Matthew Stafford has been key to slowing him down throughout his career and not many have been able to do that against Los Angeles’ offensive line this season.
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Second is the lack in secondary. The Panthers are in the top 10 in fantasy production on the season, but may be without three of their top defensive players on Sunday. Star corner Jesse Horn remains in the concussion protocol, which often leads to a game absence. Rising corners Corey Thorton, who suffered a fractured foot in Week 12, and Trayvon Moehrig, who is suspended for his fight with 49ers WR Jaun Jennings on Monday, will miss the Week 13 contest. With so much going against them, it will be difficult for the Panthers to slow down Stafford and the Rams WRs.
Arizona WR Duo or Solo Show?
In his four games with Jacoby Brissett, Marvin Harrison Jr.’s expected fantasy PPG based on volume was WR5. Michael Wilson’s last two games? WR1. I believe Harrison and Wilson can co-exist to some extent despite playing very similar roles. In Brissett’s six games this season, he is averaging 43.5 passing attempts per game, the most in the NFL. It’s not just those short, quick throws, as he also leads the way in air yards per game.
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If Wilson’s expected PPG were cut over the last two weeks halfHis volume would still be inside the top-20 for WRs. With Harrison out, Wilson played much less in the slot, dropping from 42% of snaps to 16%. Only three of his 30 targets over the past two weeks have come out of the slot, but WR Greg Dortch has had 10 targets in the slot over that span. If Wilson plays a more versatile role with Harrison, all of Arizona’s pass-catchers could still be useful in fantasy. For example, over the past two games, Wilson, TE Trey McBride and Dort have averaged 34.5 targets per game. If you add Harrison to that trio for Dort, that would be enough for 10 goals per game, each with space to spare.
Max Brosmer under center for Vikings
With JJ McCarthy this season, you’re counting on a big game for the receivers to hit, and it just hasn’t been there. In his six starts, the Vikings are averaging one explosive pass play per game. Even though Carson Wentz has started fewer games and has been targeted less downfield, the veteran quarterback has 3x more completions of 20+ yards downfield than Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, as have WRs with McCarthy under center.
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With McCarthy not expected to play due to injury, undrafted free agent QB Max Brosmer is on track to make his first career start on Sunday against the Seahawks. The bar is set pretty low, with Jefferson having 1.42 points per goal and McCarthy at center, but volume matters. We’ve seen multiple times this year alone, backup quarterbacks come in and target their star wideouts heavily, leading to fantasy success. The strength of the Seattle secondary has been particularly strong on the outside, with Jefferson and Addison both lining up more than 75% of the time this season, but at the end of the day volume will be what matters most. A new face for the Vikings receivers is a small sign of hope in itself.
Oregon Connection
Speaking of deep connections for young QBs, the Broncos’ young passing duo finally have a chance to turn the page on Sunday. No QB-WR pairing has been worse on deep balls than Bo Nix and Troy Franklin since entering the league. In attempts of 30+ yards downfield, Franklin has the second-most targets in the NFL with 27 since the start of last season. He has caught one. In comparison, George Pickens is third with 26 goals; He has taken 15 catches. The Knicks are far from perfection, but the onus is on Franklin to make some plays, as his four drops on such throws are the most in the league.
If it ever (eventually) hits, it would be this week. Through the first 10 weeks of the season, no one allowed more explosive pass plays than the Washington Commanders. Then, disaster struck. Following the loss of Marshon Lattimore in Week 9, Trey Amos played his final game of the season in Week 10. The secondary, which ranks 32nd in explosive pass play rate, is without its two top corners for the remainder of the season. If the young Ducks to Bronco connection couldn’t get paid this week, when will they get paid?
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Coaching change in Vegas
After another brutal loss, Las Vegas has moved on from OC Chip Kelly. Although the rushed production was basically non-existent, Ashton had recently been working in crime fiction for Jeanty. Since the end of Week 8, 68.4% of Jeanty’s fantasy points have come from receiving alone, the most among RBs. Vols has been incredible in the passing game, ranking fourth in targets and first in route runs. the issue is Is To stick.
spoiler: The offensive line is terrible. The Raiders can make adjustments, but I don’t see any path to massive improvement. Therefore it is very important that the receiving is not reduced in the least. Jeanty has five or more targets in four straight games this season, giving him RB1 production on the month. Las Vegas has been vocal about the need to improve the run game and run the ball MoreBut if the passing game diminishes for Jeanty, the change would only be a downgrade. Keep an eye out for his receiving usage on Sunday against the Chargers – assuming he’s able to play despite the ankle injury.
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