US President Donald Trump’s 28-point plan to end Moscow’s war in Ukraine is widely seen as a Russian wish list, and calls for major concessions from Kiev. But Rutte said talks had to start somewhere.
Experts say the Europeans have adopted a “yes, but” approach with the US to keep Trump at bay. But there are concerns about whether the Europeans will be able to influence the outcome of the talks as they wish.
“In the past, the Europeans have managed to make themselves heard in Washington, but there is no guarantee that they will succeed in reining in Trump,” Rafael Los, a policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), told DW.
red lines of europe
The original Trump proposal called for Ukraine to give up not only the territory occupied by Russia, but also parts of Donbass fortified by Ukrainian armed forces, at heavy cost.
It demanded that Ukrainians limit the number of their armed forces to 600,000 and called for a permanent ban on the country joining NATO.
Netherlands Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans told reporters that Ukraine’s territorial integrity and a strong Ukrainian military are areas on which Europe is unwilling to negotiate.
A powerful Ukrainian army, “is a strong deterrent to Russia and strengthens the entire European security system,” Brekelmans said before heading to a meeting with his European counterparts in Brussels on Monday.
Experts say Trump’s proposal broke a series of European red lines, including demands indicating the freezing of US assets.
“Agreeing that European fighter jets will be deployed to Poland,” as Trump’s original draft stated, “suggests that Americans – deployed under this or a future U.S. administration – cannot be there,” wrote Jana Kobzova.Co-Director of the European Security Program at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).
Other clauses supported “Moscow’s demand to move NATO’s infrastructure as far away from its western borders as possible, effectively ending the alliance’s containment on its eastern flank,” Kobzova wrote. “All this would create dangerous precedents affecting the whole of Europe.”
In a counter-proposal, Germany, France and the United Kingdom suggested setting a peacetime limit of 800,000 troops on the Ukrainian military, highlighted that NATO membership depended on consensus among NATO members, and said that NATO fighter jets, including American ones, would be deployed to Poland.
But is Europe being heard?
Europeans were caught unawares when Trump’s proposal first leaked. His key ally across the Atlantic had not consulted him in advance.
European security advisers then met with Secretary of State Rubio in Geneva and presented a counterproposal.
But just when it seemed the Europeans were getting a seat at the table, they were once again sidelined as the US invited only a Ukrainian delegation to Miami for talks.
At the start of Monday’s defense ministers’ meeting, the EU’s top diplomat Kaja Kallas told reporters that the Ukrainians were alone in the talks on Sunday, and that their position would have been stronger “if they would have stayed together with the Europeans.”
Others say Europe should at least partially share the blame for losing influence in pushing for the outcome.
“Europe has no (Ukraine) strategy, so it is forced to react. Trump is in the driver’s seat and sometimes he can be reasoned with, sometimes not,” Los said. “Fundamentally, the Europeans have not answered the question of what they want to achieve if the war in Ukraine ends”.
What security guarantees does Europe want for Ukraine?
The “coalition of the willing” – a group of 31 mostly European countries led by France and Britain – has stepped up work on security guarantees for Ukraine to strengthen the country’s long-term ability to deter Russia from another invasion.
The coalition has now formed a special task force with the US to work on future security guarantees for Ukraine, including the possible deployment of a multinational “assurance force”.
In an interview with French radio RTL in late November, French President Emmanuel Macron said that French, British and Turkish troops could be sent to Ukraine as part of a force “the day peace is signed”.
To deploy such a force, the Europeans need an American backstop in the form of American air cover to ensure support in case their troops come under threat, but American diplomacy is also needed to convince Moscow to sign on to the idea.
Marcus Ziener, visiting senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund (GMF) in the US, said Europe is pushing for security guarantees that look and feel like NATO security, even if Ukraine’s formal membership takes longer.
However, he said, since Washington is willing to talk about guarantees only after a peace deal is signed and does not want U.S. troops to be part of the equation, “any U.S. pledge would be a political, not a hard defense commitment.”
“For Europeans, this raises doubts about how credible such a promise would be to deter Moscow,” Ziener said.
Europe wants to help finance Ukraine’s defense needs
The European strategy in the long run is to support Ukraine in such a way that it becomes a steel porcupine – militarily strong enough to deter Russia.
But strengthening Ukrainian security also includes providing or jointly producing key military assets and paying troops their salaries and pensions. EU defense ministers discussed Ukraine’s needs at a Monday meeting, but made no concrete announcements other than a pledge by the Netherlands to supply Ukraine with €250 million in arms.
In a development that has given Ukraine and Europe some hope, Trump has acknowledged that the original draft of his plan was a map or a concept that could be worked on, not a final product. And the Europeans are expected to keep up the pressure, whether or not they are invited to all the meetings supporting Ukraine.
“Any plan can only be finalized with Europeans at the table. That’s why we are still in the initial stages,” French President Emmanuel Macron said Monday, standing beside his Ukrainian counterpart in Paris.
Edited by: Carla Bleiker
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