Energy minister says UK must ‘do whatever it takes’ to avoid gas supply crisis | Gas

Britain’s energy minister has said the country must do “whatever it takes” to avoid a gas supply crisis after consultants warned of the threat of shortages hitting homes and businesses by the end of the decade.

Michael Shanks promised that the government would “redouble its efforts to decarbonise” the economy and ensure the UK has sufficient gas storage and import capacity, saying the previous government had failed to plan for the shortage.

The minister assured the UK could face a gas supply crisis by 2030 after official energy system advisers warned that the government should plan to avoid the imminent threat.

The National Energy System Operator (Nesso) warned ministers to address “emerging risks to gas supply security”, which could mean homes and businesses go without gas during prolonged periods of cold weather.

“Such scenarios are unlikely,” Shanks said. “But this government will do whatever it takes to ensure our ongoing energy security and ensure we continue to provide the energy insurance needed even for the rarest of scenarios.

“While the previous government did not plan for this scenario, which was an inevitable consequence of a shrinking (North Sea) basin, we will take the necessary steps to ensure that the gas system and markets are optimized to not only provide day-to-day baseload gas supply for our electricity generation, domestic heating and industrial production, but also to provide the insurance we need during cold winter days where demand is far higher.”

In the first gas supply assessment since Nesso was established last year, the operator found that even though UK gas demand was likely to fall overall, there could still be a potential shortfall on the coldest days.

Naso quietly published its warning to ministers, suggesting the decline in UK domestic oil and gas production is likely to accelerate, just hours after the government set out its budget statement and economic forecast.

Although UK gas supply was likely to be sufficient to meet demand when the weather was normal, the report identified “an emerging risk to GB gas supply security” during severe cold weather.

According to the report, if even one piece of Britain’s aging gas infrastructure was damaged, Britain’s gas supply would fall short of demand in all the scenarios that Naso has modeled for 2030.

It said such an event would be “unlikely” but would lead to emergency measures such as cutting off gas supplies to factories and power plants. In extreme conditions even homes may be affected. According to varying government reports, it could take weeks or months for the country to return to normal.

Britain is heavily dependent on imports of gas via pipelines from continental Europe, as well as shipments of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar and the US. About a third of Britain’s gas comes from North Sea fields, but domestic production fell to a 50-year low last year and is expected to fall further by the end of the decade. According to Deborah Peterson, Nesso’s resilience director, “Collaboration will be essential to ensure reliable supply for consumers.”

In forecasts where all gas supply and network infrastructure were functioning properly, the risk of shortages may be much lower, but it will still be pronounced in a scenario where decarbonisation progress is slower and the UK is more dependent on gas.

A spokesman for Ofgem, the industry regulator, said it would work closely with Naso, the government and National Gas, which operates Britain’s gas network, to “mitigate risk” to the system.

Glenn Bryan-Jacobsen, director of National Gas, which operates the UK’s gas network, said: “Gas remains a vital component of the UK’s energy security. Heating homes, powering industry and supporting electricity generation during peak demand and low renewable generation. When considering potential solutions, it is essential to look at both the gas supply landscape and the investment required in network infrastructure.”