‘Embrace the spoiler.’ How AI is driving bid to elect independents : NPR

The rise of AI assistants is rewriting the rhythms of everyday life: People are inputting their blood test results into chatbots, turning to ChatGPTS for advice on their love lives, and relying on AI for everything from planning trips to completing homework assignments.

Now, one organization suggests that artificial intelligence could go beyond making daily life more convenient. It says that this is the key to reshaping American politics.

“Without AI, what we’re trying to do would be impossible,” explained Adam Brandon, a senior advisor at the Independent Center, a nonprofit that studies and connects with independent voters.

The goal is to select a handful of independent candidates for the House of Representatives in 2026, using AI to identify districts where independents can be successful and discover diamonds in the rough candidates.

At a time when control of the House is balanced on a knife’s edge, winning even a handful of seats could deny any party a majority and overturn the way the House currently operates.

It’s a bold proposal in a system that hasn’t seen a new independent candidate win a House seat in 35 years.

But the data shows an increase in liberal and independent voters. Gallup found that 43% of Americans – a record high – are claiming independent labels in 2024. Exit polls that year showed that 34 percent of voters identified as independent, up from 26 percent in 2020.

“There’s a huge segment of people who, for various reasons, can’t stomach either party,” said David Barker, a professor of government at American University. “This is the first time in a long time where large numbers of Americans are now identifying as free people, and that seems to signal a very significant shift.”

Brandon said change is what makes the time right to disrupt the status quo.

“It’s like Uber and taxis. You had a system with a glaring flaw that operators took over and made a radical change to completely eliminate it,” he told NPR. “And that’s what we’re realizing now. People get caught up in ‘Republican’ and ‘Democrat’ and we’re assuming that, OK, there’s something else.”

‘We are political warriors’

Trying to crack the stranglehold of the two-party system is an uphill battle, pitted against political orthodoxy and plenty of skeptics.

But the strategists of the Independent Center are far from political novices.

“We are political fighters,” said Brandon, who served as president of FreedomWorks, the conservative grassroots group that helped turn Tea Party activists into a political force before closing its doors last year. “We’ve built a team of people who know how to do this. We’re not going to back down.”

Brandon works closely with Brett Loyd, who runs The Bulfinch Group, a non-partisan polling and data firm that oversees polling and research at the Independent Center. He previously worked on President Trump’s polling team when the President was a candidate.

“I’m a statistician. I joke that I worked for the RNC because they offered me the job before the DNC,” he said, smiling. “My job is numbers and emotion and game theory. It’s not necessarily Republican or Democratic.”

He makes it clear that the goal of his work is not to completely eliminate bias.

“It won’t work everywhere. It will work in very specific areas,” Loyd said. “If you live in an ultra-Republican or ultra-Democratic district, there should be a Democrat or Republican representing you.”

But with the help of AI, they have identified 40 seats that do not fit that mold, where they said independents can make a dent in voters fed up with both parties. The Independent Center plans to field about ten candidates by the spring, with the goal of winning at least half the races.

Brandon speculates that these victories could prompt liberals in the House to change affiliations.

“One of my Republican (members) said to me in his office, ‘I’m too stupid to do this right now,'” he recalled. “‘But if you can do it, I’ll join you.'”

From mining Reddit to matching on LinkedIn

Their proprietary AI tool, created by an external partner, has been years in the making.

While focus groups and polling provide a long-term understanding of American sentiment, AI can monitor what people are talking about in real time.

Brandon said, “Polling is a snapshot in time – at 11 o’clock on Tuesday when you got the call or you were in the focus group, you felt this way, but then you went home and your views changed. We can see it.”

They are using AI to understand the main issues and concerns of voters and look for suitable districts for an independent candidate.

“A district that’s 50% Republican and 50% Democratic, that keeps flopping because of who showed up on a given night, is that something that’s truly independent versus a district in Arizona where the majority are independent but they’re holding their noses and voting?” Loyd explained. “We’re looking at voter participation rates. Which districts actually have low turnout because those people are not excited to go to the ballot box.”

He’s also keeping an eye on districts with younger voters, who he said should embrace the independent message.

“When I say Gen Z and Millennials, people roll their eyes and they’re like ‘kids,'” he said. “Well, those kids are going to be more than half the voters in the next presidential election.”

From there, the next step is to take the data and figure out what the dream candidate looks like.

The Independent Center is recruiting candidates from people who reach out to the organization directly and with the help of AI.

They can also run their data through LinkedIn to identify potential candidates with certain interests and career and volunteer histories.

“Normally they’re not self-promoting, but their actions leave a footprint,” Loyd said, giving the example of someone volunteering at an event covered by a local newspaper. “We ask our AI to find that footprint.”

AI also tells where the best position is for the candidate to win.

Brandon points to an example where a candidate was set to run in his home district. The AI ​​showed that the neighboring district is a better bet.

“30 minutes way, perfect fit,” he said. “And that’s what (that person) is going to do, because we found that they’re a perfect match.”

‘What’s wrong with spoiling something people don’t like?’

One criticism Brandon and Loyd acknowledge they often hear is the idea of ​​’spoilers’ – non-winning candidates whose presence on the ballot influences which candidate wins.

“It’s a partisan, conservative line,” Loyd said. “What’s wrong with ruining something people don’t like?”

He said those who are criticizing independents entering the race as spoilers have a strong interest in the current system.

He said, “The Republican and Democratic establishments still live in a world that is binary. It’s Coke or Pepsi, it’s Ford or Chevy, it’s MSNBC or Fox News.” “It works for people who watch MSNBC and Fox News. Everyone else? We don’t live in that binary system anymore.”

Brandon said there was only one thing to do and that was to bend over.

“We are going to embrace the spoiler because what we are spoiling is a very corrupt system.”