Economy and Finance Secretary Tai Kin Ip was unable to provide a GDP forecast for next year during Tuesday’s Legislative Assembly session.
Despite MPs pressing for a forecast, the secretary said only that he expected ‘positive growth’.
The session was called for the first reading of the government’s 2026 budget, among other items, in which lawmakers gave the green light to a bill estimating gross gaming revenues at MOP236 billion (US$29.38 billion) next year.
In his explanation for this optimistic forecast, the Secretary said that the first half performance provided some context – based on official records which showed that MOP19.66 billion was made in GGR each month.
This amount, multiplied by 12, is close to the annual GGR forecast made by the government.
‘In the first 10 months this year, gross gaming revenues fell short of expectations in five of the months,’ the secretary told legislators.
‘In addition, forecasts regarding the external and surrounding economies pose challenges for Macau as a small and highly sensitive economy, which is sensitive to fluctuations.’
According to the 2026 budget, the government is expected to receive revenues of approximately MOP118.8 billion next year, while expenditures amount to approximately MOP113.5 billion.
If estimated correctly, there would be a surplus of more than MOP5.3 billion.
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