“Our objective is to protect the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime,” Trump said, vowing to destroy Iranian nuclear and military capabilities in a video shared on social media.
“We will ensure that Iran cannot acquire nuclear weapons,” he said.
Laying out the objectives of the campaign, Trump also said that the US would destroy Iran’s ballistic missile program and its naval forces.
Since the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran appears to be short-term and not limited, analysts believe the conflict could continue for weeks, if not months.
Objective 1: Prevent Iran from acquiring or producing nuclear weapons
Following the 12-day war between Iran and Israel in June 2025, Trump announced that the US had “destroyed” Iran’s major nuclear facilities and that the Islamic Republic would not be able to produce nuclear weapons in the near future.
“The US is waging a war that aims to destroy this (nuclear) program again, so I think this is, overall, an excuse,” said Markus Schneider, an expert at the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES) in Lebanon.
“At that time, Iran’s nuclear program was dealt a blow due to the US attacks; some say for a few months, while others say for a few years,” he told DW. “But I believe it cannot be eliminated. It is also a question of expertise, which means if Iran has the expertise to build these centrifuges and do (uranium) enrichment, that is something you cannot eliminate through the Air Force.”
Italy-based security analyst Shahin Modares says a nuclear-armed Iran will always be viewed by Israel and the US as “unacceptable”.
“Therefore, preventing nuclear weaponization is a strategic objective, not just a policy priority,” Modares told DW.
Diba Mirzai of the German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA) calls it “an excuse to justify war” and argues that “at the moment Iran poses no practical threat.”
Talks between the US and Iran in Geneva this week regarding Tehran’s nuclear program yielded no results.
Objective 2: End Iran’s ballistic missile program
Some experts believe that the US and Israel consider Tehran’s ballistic missile capabilities a greater threat than its nuclear program. In last year’s 12-day war, Iran demonstrated that its missiles could damage Israeli and US military facilities in the region.
“From an operational point of view, production facilities, storage sites and solid-fuel procurement chains are targeted – as recent attacks on missile-related infrastructure have demonstrated,” Modares underlined. “However, technical information cannot be destroyed,” he said. He said that complete elimination of the Islamic Republic’s missile program is “unlikely, but severe degradation and long-term limitation of capability is possible.”
Schneider agrees: “This is a domestic industry, which means these are not imported ballistic missiles. Iran is in a position – which it has proven since the end of the last war – to produce them itself. Of course, it is possible to destroy the arsenal, but the question is how long it will take and who will suffer in the process.”
Objective 3: Destruction of Iran’s naval forces
For Schneider, it is more likely for the US to destroy Iran’s navy than its missile capabilities. “Of course, it is possible militarily. But one must understand that they (Iran) also have many small boats – so-called speedboats. So, I think it is not something that can be achieved in a week,” the analysts said.
Shaheen Modares said that there is a historical example of such operation.
“During Operation Praying Mantis (1988), the US seriously damaged Iran’s naval capabilities. If freedom of navigation – especially in the Strait of Hormuz, which is an important global energy chokepoint – is under threat, the US could justify large-scale naval action. The strategic objective for this would be to guarantee the opening of sea lanes,” Modares stressed.
Sarah Karamanian, an international relations researcher at the University of Sussex, shares this view: “The United States could seriously damage Iran’s active naval forces in the short term, significantly reducing their ability to disrupt maritime traffic.”
Objective 4: Overthrow the regime
It is unclear how President Trump intends to achieve this goal through his latest military campaign, as Washington has given no indication of launching ground operations inside Iran. But reports of Israeli and US air strikes on military and government targets inside Iran suggest that the campaign is largely aimed at weakening the regime.
Trump said in his speech, “When we’re finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take over. It may be your only chance for generations.” “For many years, you have asked America for help, but you have never received help.”
Modares says renewed mass protests against the hardline regime of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, something similar to those in January, could be possible but would require a powerful triggering event. The expert said, “Given the memory of repression, spontaneous uprisings are unlikely without structural weakening of the regime. Statements suggesting an opportunity may act more as a strategic signal than a firm commitment.”
Schneider believes that ground troops will be needed to overthrow the regime. He said, “Trump’s intention is to do this with only air power and then he believes that in the midst of a war the Iranian population will rise up and take action against this brutal regime, I find it quite fantastical to imagine that.”
He underlined, “If the real goal is regime change, I would assume that this war will last a long time – possibly several months. And the big question that arises is the resilience of the regime.”
Modares believes that Trump’s offer of immunity to members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is “a classic strategy aimed at encouraging elite defection and exacerbating internal fragmentation.”
“Its effectiveness will increase if sustained military and economic pressure weakens the regime’s cohesion. However, the institutional surrender of the IRGC will only be possible under conditions of profound systemic collapse,” he said.
What will happen if the objective of regime collapse is not achieved?
Karmanian believes that if Trump’s goal of regime collapse is not accomplished, the short-term consequences for citizens could be severe.
“A wounded but intact state may respond with intense repression, especially if it perceives that parts of society have welcomed external pressure. Much will then depend on whether the escalation of tensions is followed by a compromise solution that restructures relations and at least reduces sanctions, or whether confrontation continues in a cycle of sanctions, proxy conflict and periodic attacks,” he said, adding that in the absence of an agreement, Iran could face a long and dangerous path of militarization and economic destruction. May enter a more serious phase.
Additional reporting by Neelofar Gholami and Kiersten Knip.
Edited by: Ole Tangen Jr.
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