With the Hurricanes entering Tuesday night at No. 12 in the College Football Playoff Selection Committee’s fourth of six rankings, the ACC’s hopes of qualifying two teams for the 12-team field are still alive. However, time is running out to convince the selection committee that they are better than Notre Dame – and the gap still remains despite head-to-head wins. The ACC champion – even if it’s No. 18 Virginia – is almost certainly guaranteed a spot as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions. This is evidenced by the fact that five ACC teams are still ranked above No. 24 Tulane, the Group of 5 conference’s only representative. The question is whether Miami can do enough to join the ACC champions as an at-large team on Saturday with one game remaining at No. 22 Pitt.
Although Kane has no margin for error and could still use some help on his own, he could get it if Ole Miss doesn’t win the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State. No. 6 Oregon jumped up one spot from No. 7 Ole Miss, indicating the Rebels would not be able to recover from another stumble.
With rivalry week approaching, there are still plenty of scenarios that could play out – and hope still flowing from the bubble.
Here at Bubble Watch is an account of what we’ve learned so far from the committee – and historical knowledge of what it means for the teams involved with hope. with teams will be in Below are this week’s standings based on the committee’s fourth ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we have also listed in the final team And first team outThese are true bubble teams revolving around inclusion, Teams labeled still in the mix Not deleted but has work to do or needs help. a team that is Outside Will have to wait till next year.
The conferences below are ranked from highest to lowest, based on the number of bids they received, based on the committee’s fourth ranking.
Go to a conference:
acc | Big 12 big ten
SEC | independent | group of 5
bracket
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Will be here: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Final Team: AlabamaThe Tide can either clinch their spot in the SEC Championship Game with a win against Auburn in the Iron Bowl – or miss the playoffs altogether with a loss to their rival, The debate will start if Alabama finishes as the SEC runner-up with three losses, The Tide has played the ninth-toughest schedule in the country, according to ESPN Analytics, and their resume will only be enhanced by facing a top-five opponent in the SEC Championship Game, A third loss, however, even in a close game against a top-five team, could drop Alabama into a dangerous spot in the top 12, where it could face elimination to become a guaranteed conference champion – or another Big 12 team,
First team out: VanderbiltThe Commodores can maintain the status quo this week, which means at No, 14 they will be in longshot for an at-large bid, Punctuating their resume with a win against ranked Tennessee would be the first step, but they’ll also need several upsets to be seriously considered, This is conceivable, as Miami could lose to Pitt, Oklahoma could suffer a third loss to LSU, and Alabama could lose the Iron Bowl, However, none of this matters without a win in Knoxville,
Still in the mix: none,
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas
big ten
Will be at: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
Final Team: OregonWith the win against USC, Oregon eliminated the biggest threat to its playoff spot in the Big Ten and solidified its place in the top 10, The win against USC boosted the Ducks’ resume enough to jump Ole Miss, and the complete performance against another ranked contender answered some questions in the committee meeting room, According to ESPN Analytics, Oregon now has a 16,5% chance to reach the Big Ten title game, but must beat Washington, And He needs Michigan to beat Ohio State.
First team out: MichiganThe No, 15 Wolverines are here to stay as they can reach the Big Ten Championship Game with a win against Ohio State And lost to indiana Or Oregon. Michigan no longer has to worry about a head-to-head loss to USC as the Trojans have suffered three losses and fall to No. 17 behind the Wolverines in the latest rankings. However, a loss to No. 8 Oklahoma would likely put them behind the Sooners for an at-large bid if they both finish with the same record. However, no one in the country will have a better win than Michigan if it defeats the Buckeyes for the fifth consecutive season.
Still in the mix: none,
Out: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, USC, Washington, Wisconsin
big 12
Will be in: Texas Tech
Final Team: Texas TechThe Red Raiders can clinch a berth in the Big 12 title game with a win at West Virginia, As long as Texas Tech does that, it should be a lock for the CFP – win or lose in the Big 12 Championship, It would be both surprising and difficult for the committee to justify excluding Texas Tech if its second loss comes to a top-11 BYU team that it defeated handily during the regular season, The Red Raiders would be the only team that could claim a regular season victory over the eventual Big 12 champion in that scenario,
First team out: BYUThe Cougars can clinch a berth in the Big 12 title game with a home win against UCF on Saturday, They would be a CFP lock with the Big 12 title, but a loss would likely knock them out of the bracket as they are already in a precarious position having lost to the same team twice, They will need several upsets to occur to remain in consideration as a two-loss Big 12 runner-up,
Still in the mix: Arizona State, UtahASU can earn a spot in the Big 12 title game with a win against Arizona And a byu loss Or a win And Losses to both Texas Tech and Utah. If the Utes beat Kansas they will reach the Big 12 title game And BYU and Arizona State both won And Texas Tech lost.
Out: Arizona, Baylor, Cincinnati, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
acc
Will be in: Miami
Final Team: MiamiMiami’s chances of reaching the ACC title game are now 14,2% – third best in the league behind SMU and Virginia, which are both above 80%, This means that their best chance of reaching the CFP remains through an at-large bid, They must win at Pitt on Saturday, and it helps that the committee ranked the Panthers 22nd on Tuesday night, Miami’s loss to SMU no longer looks as bad as it did initially when the Mustangs entered the CFP top 25 at No, 21, Miami is getting some help, but it’s also helped itself by winning three straight games by at least 17 points, Saturday at Virginia Tech brought Miami the first road win outside its home state that the committee had been waiting for, Miami’s win against Notre Dame remains one of the best in the country, and the ‘Canes are within range of the committee reconsidering the head-to-head tiebreaker, They’re both in the same conversation as Alabama and BYU, If Miami can win at Pitt, the committee will definitely factor it into their discussion when ranking fifth, However, it’s important to remember that head-to-head isn’t the only factor in the room, The entire task is considered, and right now, the committee is more influenced by the Irish,
First team out: VirginiaOf all the complicated scenarios still left in the ACC, this isn’t one of them: If Virginia beats rival Virginia Tech on Saturday, the Cavaliers will clinch a spot in the conference title game, And No, 21 SMU is now one of the conference’s five ranked teams, with the possibility of joining two ranked opponents in the ACC title game, The Mustangs have the best chance to reach the ACC Championship Game (86%), followed by Virginia (81%) after Week 13, but SMU lost to Baylor, TCU and Wake Forest – the latter two of which are above ,500, If SMU wins at Cal on Saturday, the Mustangs will clinch a berth in the ACC title game, Virginia was the committee’s second-highest ranked ACC team behind Miami in its fourth seeding, and the Cavaliers received a bye,
Still in the mix: Duke, Georgia Tech, Pitt, SMUHere you can find your complex scenarios, Pitt can reach the ACC Championship Game with a win And loss by smu Or UVA. Duke can enter with a win and a loss against two of the following three teams: Pitt, SMU and Virginia. Georgia Tech needs a lot of things, it might want to find a church instead of playing Georgia.
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Independent
Will be in: Notre Dame. The Irish are doing everything right – they’re winning and looking good doing it. If they can seal the deal with a relatively easy win against Stanford, Notre Dame will be in the familiar position of waiting and watching as the conference championship games unfold and possibly change the picture. Notre Dame fans should keep a close eye on the SEC and Big 12 title games. If Miami beats Pitt, the committee will compare that to common rival Notre Dame, which also beat Pitt. They will continue to talk about the head-to-head tiebreaker, but it is not the final determiner. Miami and Notre Dame could both earn at-large bids, but if there are two Big 12 teams, one of the current top 10 would have to bow out.
group of 5
Will be at: TulaneThis is where the committee will likely continue to differ with the computers, which say James Madison (57%) and North Texas (54,4%) have the best chances of making the playoff, JMU’s schedule is currently ranked 123rd, while North Texas is 127th, and it has given them both pause in the committee meeting room, Tulane is ranked No, 73 with wins against Duke and Northwestern, The No, 24-ranked Green Wave maintained their spot as the committee’s highest-ranked Group of 5 teams this week after a 37-13 win at Temple, their largest margin of victory this season,
Still in the mix: East Carolina, James Madison, Navy, North Texas, South Florida. JMU has clinched the East Division and a berth in the Sun Belt Conference championship game. It will face the winner of Southern Miss vs. Troy. Five American teams are still eligible to play in the conference title game, and several tiebreaker scenarios are still up for grabs. Tulane has one of the most direct paths. If it is the highest ranked American team in the CFP rankings it will end with a win. North Texas would clinch a spot with the win – as Navy was not ahead of Tulane and North Texas in the CFP rankings on Tuesday. Navy can gain a spot with a win And a loss by tulane Or North Texas.
bracket
Based on the fourth ranking of the committee, the preference will be as follows:
Bye in first round
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champion)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC Champion)
No. 4 Georgia
first round games
On campus, December 19 and 20
No. 12 Tulane (American Champion) at No. 5 Texas Tech (Big 12 Champion)
No. 11 Miami (ACC champion) at No. 6 Oregon
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Ole Miss
No. 9 Notre Dame and No. 8 Oklahoma
quarterfinal game
The Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1, respectively.
No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Texas Tech champ vs. No. 4 Georgia
No. 11 Miami/No. No. 6 Oregon champ vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Ole Miss Winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma Winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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