It’s Thanksgiving week, and in college basketball, that means there are plenty of activities to keep your fans happy. That’s doubly the case on Tuesday, with a packed crowd at the Players Era Festival as it takes center stage from Las Vegas. On the docket we have eight ranked teams in games from Sin City that run from noon to late night. it’s a ham And Turkey-level spread with green bean casserole and stuffing. You should prepare accordingly.
The slate begins at 1pm ET from the MGM Grand Garden Arena with a matinee matchup between Rutgers and Notre Dame on TNT – get your second screen ready! – 2 p.m. ET tip-off from Michelob Ultra Arena on the road between No. 15 Iowa State and Creighton.
But wait: there’s more! there are four More The game as scheduled on Tuesday after the first wave, between Oregon and San Diego State, ends with an 11 p.m. ET tip.
To celebrate the basketball bonus I’ve called in my experts to make straight and against spread picks for every Vegas game. Those selections are below.
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8:30 pm on TNT: Michigan won the title with a 94-54 win over San Diego State on Monday. And yet…it was the second-largest final margin of victory in a game this season for the Wolverines. For a team that has made a habit of playing with close players last season, this is an encouraging sign.
Auburn also defeated a talented Oregon team by a final margin of 11 points. Tahadh Pettiford had 24 points and Keyshawn Hall had 18 points – but more notable, Oregon guard Jackson Shelstead and Oregon big Nate Bittle were held to a total of 19 points on 2-of-15 shooting.
On paper these are two evenly matched teams who are playing very well. And, on paper, Michigan (the No. 2 defense in adjusted efficiency and the No. 5 team in KenPom’s net rating metric) has the edge in both metrics and talent. But if there is any lead, it is only by a small margin. However, Auburn is operating at a high level right now, and I’m not sure the metrics have fully captured it. Kevin Overton’s defense and the consistent impact of Elijah Freeman have me believing that the Tigers’ playmakers can be the difference. Pick: Auburn +5.5–Boone
9:30 pm on truTV:Gonzaga’s 95-85 win over Alabama on Monday made me scream I told you!! From my couch. I’ve been Gonzaga’s top guy all season long and this felt like confirmation. I won’t shy away from that worship in my selection below. Tyon Grant-Foster and Graham Ike are matchup problems for the Terps.
Clearly Maryland deserves some respect: It’s 5-1 with wins over Marquette and UNLV, among others. But it doesn’t have the experience, size, or offensive weapons to make me think it can pull off an upset here. The one thing he can hang his hat on is his defense, which is unlikely to be a difference maker against Gonzaga’s efficient offensive machine. Few teams are as balanced on paper as Gonzaga on both offense and defense. And few teams are so experienced in terms of that balance. Gonzaga has little to choose from. It could all be Zags. Pick: Gonzaga -13.5 — Boone
Oregon vs. San Diego State
At 11 pm on TNT: Monday was a wake-up call for both Oregon, which lost to Auburn by 11, and San Diego State, which lost to Michigan by 40. However, Oregon’s loss feels more like a setback than SDSU’s. This was aided by uncharacteristic turnover issues (which have been a problem early this season) and inconsistency on offense.
SDSU’s loss was its second loss in as many games last week after losing to Troy in double OT at home. Now 2-2 on the season, the Aztecs’ offensive issues are hard to ignore. This could be a dangerous situation as SDSU is fighting for pride after Monday’s loss. Oddsmakers think this is very much a trend.
The backcourt battle between these two talented teams – especially Jackson Shelstead vs. Miles Byrd – should be great theater. But Oregon’s depth and Oregon’s size — combined with the absence of SDSU big Magoon Gwath — forces me to lean ducks. Pick: Oregon -2.5 — Boone
UNLV vs. No. 8 Alabama
12am on truTV:Expect some yo-yoing in Alabama’s journey this season with a non-conference schedule that is arguably the toughest in college basketball. It beat St. John’s and Illinois but has lost to Purdue and now Gonzaga. However, as always, it’s important to trust its offense, even if its defense has faltered.
Given UNLV’s defensive struggles, this could be a problem for him. The Runnin’ Rebels rank 147th in 3-point defense allowed percentage, and given Bama’s history under Nate Oats we can expect a heavy dose of attempts from beyond the arc.
Midnight (ET) Tip – Have mercy! Alabama vs. Gonzaga is a tough test that I think could be close. But UNLV’s defense is by far its weakest link – and Alabama is built to take advantage of it. If the 3-pointers fall it could turn from a downpour to a downpour for the Runnin’ Rebels. Pick: Alabama -13.5 — Boone
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Rutgers vs. Notre Dame
1pm on TNT: Neither Rutgers nor Notre Dame began their week in Vegas with a win on Monday — they lost to Tennessee by 25 and Kansas by 10, respectively — determining which stats will be important for each before the weeklong break heading into the holidays. Notre Dame (4-2) and Rutgers (4-2) both play intentional styles that are similar in some ways, but the Irish’s ability to defend inside the arc and Rutgers’ opposite struggle to consistently score, make the duality of this one striking.
The selection above–including mine! –are largely chocolaty. But among the underdogs Tuesday, I think Notre Dame has a realistic chance to play spoiler. The Irish have been competitive against quality competition this season despite losses, and they can cover that number if they play to their potential. Pick: Notre Dame -7.5 — Boone
No. 15 Iowa State vs. Creighton
2pm on TruTV: Iowa State seized its first real opportunity to step into the spotlight with an 83-82 win over preseason No. 5 (and current No. 14) St. John’s on Monday. The most impressive thing by the Cyclones is that they won despite only forcing 10 turnovers and allowing 83 points – a season-low in turnovers forced and a season-high in points allowed, both of which have made them especially lethal. However, this win came with a potential loss, as star guard Tammin Lipsey left with an injury at the end of the game and did not return. His condition for the remainder of the week is unknown. Creighton, on the other hand, enters this game coming off a hard-fought loss to a Baylor team that broke it on the boards despite drilling 11 3-pointers, highlighting its physicality – or lack thereof. Lipsey’s potential absence looms large, but these are undoubtedly two teams heading in completely opposite directions at the moment.
Few teams in college basketball play a more suffocating style of play than Iowa State. Defensively the Cyclones are fourth in college basketball in turnover rate and their defense is top-10 in adjusted efficiency metrics at KenPom. This is accounting for its Monday matchup versus St. John’s which depressed both numbers. It’s a tough combination for a rebuilding Creighton team that has struggled to take care of the ball so far and at times looked indifferent when facing pressure. This is a place ISU can win and win big – even if Lipsey can’t go. Pick: Iowa State -5.5 — Boone
kansas vs syracuse
3:30 pm on TNT: Syracuse suffered its first loss of the season in a 78-74 overtime loss to No. 3 Houston on Monday. But leaving the final result aside, it was an encouraging performance for the Orange and third-year coach Red Autry to keep the national runner-up Cougars ahead for a full 45 minutes. This also did not seem strange. Syracuse was shooting the ball well and committed 13 turnovers, which was part of its finish.
Another big opportunity to measure herself awaits Tuesday vs. Kansas in Vegas, where she will again be on the receiving end. Kansas won its first Vegas test on Monday with a 71-61 win over Notre Dame, but continues without injured star Darrin Peterson.
Without Peterson, Trey White and Melvin Council have had to step up in his absence — but it’s undoubtedly a void that’s largely unfilled due to Peterson’s tremendous impact on both ends. This could open the door to competition between these two as they wrap up their respective weeks in Sin City.
Houston is hard to beat even on an off day, but Syracuse did just about that despite not playing so well on Monday. I’m hesitant to overreact to that one-game result but I’m also afraid of not reacting enough. And what I saw in that game was a motivated, cohesive team that had the size and skill to surprise some teams this year. I’m not sure Kansas will necessarily be that team, but it was impressive enough that I got a chance to take points with the Orange here. Pick: Syracuse +5.5 — Boone
No. 14 St. John’s vs. Baylor
4:30pm on truTV: Despite a close 83-82 loss to Iowa State on Monday, St. John’s acquitted itself well with 15 assists, 10 turnovers and relatively clean play against a devastating ISU defense. This is encouraging to move forward. The emergence and dependability of Dylan Darling is central to that optimism. Better days are coming – and it could start as early as Tuesday.
Baylor entered Tuesday as the underdog despite an impressive 81-74 win over Creighton on Monday, performing as the favorite. It’s got balance on both ends and a star in Cam Carr, who had 21 points, 9 rebounds, 3 assists and 2 blocks on Monday. But its lack of depth could hurt, especially in a game of St. John’s level. The Johnnies’ relentless physicality versus the guile and free-flowing Baylor could decide it. Are the bears up to the task?
A sneaky chance to be the best game on the slate on Tuesday. Baylor is unranked, but is playing well despite a roster change in the offseason, including an entirely new team. Yes: No returning players. After Monday’s big win over Creighton I like the Bears to cover the number and potentially keep it close. Pick: Baylor +6.5 — Boon
No. 3 Houston vs. No. 17 Tennessee
6pm on TNT:Houston was tested more than expected (and frankly, more than it should have) in Monday’s 78-74 OT win over Syracuse. The good news is that it passed the test as Milos Uzan and Emmanuel Sharp combined to put it away for all 11 Cougars points in OT. (They both finished with 26 points.) It’s a deep investigation to build off of and move forward.
Tennessee, as I predicted on the HQ pregame, had no problems in its own Tuesday appetizer on Monday – dispatching Rutgers by a 25-point final margin. Rutgers is not in good shape right now. (It lost to Central Connecticut — not even main Connecticut! — on Friday.) It’s hard to get a good read on the Vols, who have yet to face a team ranked in the top-130 in KenPom. That changes on Tuesday.
This is Tennessee’s first real test of the season and its first matchup against a top-130 opponent in KenPom. Naturally, this comes against a similarly constructed team in Houston that likes to win the same way: defense, physicality and – oh yes – did I mention defense. I think Houston has more of all of the above and it covers the numbers. But it could be a close affair that is decided over the last few possessions. Pick: Houston -3.5 — Boone
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