In simple terms, Chelsea is playing well – but not enough to be champions.
Chelsea’s attack is at the same level as Arsenal despite losing Cole Palmer for more than two months due to injury.
However, Arsenal’s incredible defensive statistics set them apart.
Historically, a team needs an average differential of +1 non-penalty expected goals (NPXG) per game to win the title – meaning you are creating significantly more chances than are being given away on a consistent basis.
Only Arsenal are achieving that level of consistency so far this season, while Chelsea need to improve defensively.
After beating Liverpool, Tottenham and Barcelona this term, Spain left-back Marc Cucurella said his team’s inconsistency against lesser opposition is an issue.
“I think we’ve lost points this season against teams where you expect to win,” the defender said.
Interestingly, Arsenal’s exceptional defense has threatened Chelsea’s records for most clean sheets (25) and fewest goals scored (15) in a Premier League campaign, achieved under Jose Mourinho in 2005.
“You can see they haven’t conceded goals,” Maresca said. “They are the best team defensively and are top in the league and the Champions League, so they are the team to beat.”
There are obvious stylistic similarities between the two teams – both play a high-pressing, patient possession style.
Yet another important difference is the quality of the set-pieces. With 10 goals in 12 matches and the highest xG at 7.88, Arsenal are the league’s best attacking set-piece team. Meanwhile, Chelsea are second with eight set-piece goals and have the fourth highest xG at 5.44.
Arsenal conceded only one fewer set-piece goals than Chelsea – three compared to four – and they have the second-best xG when defending such situations (2.04), while Chelsea are the second-worst (6.40). Despite improvements last season, it could still cause trouble when Arsenal come to town.
Chelsea will also have to overcome a consistently poor record with just one win in their last 11 Premier League matches when they face Arsenal on Sunday. The Gunners are also unbeaten in six matches at Stamford Bridge.
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