People in the government boldly and proudly consider this to be a real Labor Budget.
He argues that taxes rise for good reason, as his right-wing critics argue that spending, profits, and taxes are out of control.
At the heart of this budget was the Chancellor’s choice to impose big taxes and spend big.
Don’t take my word for it: the Institute for Fiscal Studies says that “If an election were held tomorrow, the total tax increases announced in this Parliament would be greater than the tax increases announced in any other since at least 1970.”
Rachel Reeves argues that doing so means the government can do what party figures consider “good Labor things” such as the decision to scrap the two-child limit on the child element in Universal Credit.
The government’s budget document proudly announces, “Removing the two-child limit will lift 450,000 children out of poverty, rising to around 550,000 with other measures announced this year such as the extension of free school meals.”
Labor MPs in the Commons were delighted as soon as the scheme was outlined – so many have been campaigning hard for it since the general election.
Although there is not universal support for this on the Labor benches – there is an awareness that as popular as the idea is for many within the party, opinion polls show that retaining the cap was also popular.
This is illustrative of the different audiences the Chancellor wants to attract with this Budget.
It needs to maintain credibility in the financial markets, so that the government can continue to borrow and do so at affordable rates.
This needs to be well accepted by the wider electorate, especially given how unpopular the government is right now.
And for that reason, it needs to go down well among Labor MPs, who are well aware of how dismal the party’s opinion poll ratings are right now.
The government argues that what the Chancellor has said will benefit all but the richest 10% of households by the end of the decade – once again underlining the progressive trend they are so proud to talk about.
Both Downing Street, No. 10 and No. 11, will be hoping that the enthusiastic waving of order papers by Labor backbenchers when the Chancellor finished his address – symbolically – will continue in the coming months.
He hopes that this will give some time to the Prime Minister and the Chancellor.
And two other developments could prove crucial to whether they achieve this.
The Chancellor is giving herself more leeway in terms of her numbers – more room before breaking her own self-imposed rules to reassure markets. This should mean that events are less likely to jeopardize his plans.
Another thing that should make it less likely is that the independent watchdog and forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), is checking whether the government is meeting those rules just once a year instead of twice.
And Reeves might also reflect that pressing ‘publish’ at the OBR only once every 12 months has an added bonus: it halves the chance of a repeat of the jaw-dropping Budget Day cock-up that stole the Chancellor’s thunder – when he managed to publish his full plans 45 minutes before he stood up to make the announcement in the Commons.
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