Is something traditional if you’ve only done it for the last two years? If it hasn’t already, rest assured that predicting every game of the Champions League league stage and then predicting it again at the halfway point is about to become as prominent a part of the CBS Sports content game as the turkey is on your Thanksgiving table. I completely agree on this. There are plenty of opportunities to make yourself look foolish.
For example, You may recall this column’s impression that the league stage was off to a disastrous start for Atlético Madrid, Who saw the sight of yesterday’s team going into this competition. Instead they are punting in perfectly adequate fashion, six points off a difficult start to the competition. And what’s so outrageous is that Paphos was actually going to do this to six-time European champion Bayern Munich? He aged like milk in a summer greenhouse.
So consider this a mulligan, a desperate attempt to shake off some of the notoriety and get back on track in the prediction game. Although I don’t know. I still think it might look quite embarrassing in January.
matchweek 5
- Ajax 1, Benfica 1
- Galatasaray 2, Union SG 0
- Bodo/Glimt 1, Juventus 0
- napoli 2, qarabag 0
- marseille 2, newcastle 2
- Borussia Dortmund 2, Villarreal 0
- Chelsea 2, Barcelona 4
- Manchester City 3, Bayer Leverkusen 0
- Slavia Prague 0, Athletic Club 1
- Paphos 0, Monaco 3
- Copenhagen 2, Carat 0
- Olympiacos 0, Real Madrid 1
- Sporting 2, Club Brugge 1
- eintracht frankfurt 3, atalanta 3
- liverpool 2, psv 0
- atlético madrid 1, inter 1
- arsenal 1, bayern munich 1
- Paris Saint-Germain 2, Tottenham 0
A week of big Champions League games begins in thrilling fashion, with Lamine Yamal and the returning Raphinha sealing an impressive win for Barcelona that confirms their status as serious contenders. The two teams that didn’t have to do so are happy to settle for a 1-1 draw at the Emirates Stadium, with Arsenal rotating their squad with an eye on the Premier League and Bayern perfectly happy to hold on to top spot. Inter could have snatched it from them but their draw at Atletico Madrid means there are no 100% records left in the competition.
There are no more nil indicators, but the 1-1 draw between Ajax and Benfica earlier this week means they both remain top with just one draw to their name. Only a miraculous win in their last three matches will give them even half a chance of making the top 24. In reality they, Villarreal and Caratea are looking to get a point from five matches.
match day 6
- Kairat 0, Olympiacos 1
- Bayern Munich 3, Sporting 0
- Atalanta 1, Chelsea 2
- Inter 2, Liverpool 1
- Barcelona 5, Eintracht Frankfurt 2
- psv 1, atlético madrid 1
- Union SG 2, Marseille 1
- tottenham 1, slavia prague 0
- Monaco 3, Galatasaray 1
- Villarreal 1, Copenhagen 0
- Qarabag 0, Ajax 0
- Real Madrid 2, Manchester City 2
- Borussia Dortmund 3, Bodø/Glimt 1
- Athletic 1, Paris Saint-Germain 3
- Bayer Leverkusen 1, Newcastle United 1
- Club Brugge 0, Arsenal 2
- benfica 1, napoli 0
- Juventus 2, Paphos 0
Juventus may rally against Paphos but this is already shaping up to be a strangely weak campaign for the Serie A side. bianconeri Get into the top 24 but you can throw a blanket between the 18th and the 21st and get three-quarters of Italy’s delegates. Napoli and Atalanta’s stumbles are perhaps to be expected, as both of these teams had to deal with key departures in 2025 – notably Khvicha Kvaratskheliya and Gian Piero Gasperini – but even if Juventus were to beat both Bodø/Glimt and Paphos, they are hardly performing up to the level of their talent.
Inter have been more impressive, which belies the fact that Liverpool are still working towards achieving their best form. They, Arsenal and Bayern Munich find themselves four points adrift of ninth place, certainly not having booked their place in the last 16, but potentially able to hang around until January to ease the minutes load on their stars.
That trio and a few teams at the bottom are probably the only ones who can finish 2025 thinking in those terms. You have a group of teams between seven points and four in Copenhagen, from 19th to 33rd, ahead of Napoli. This is not shaping up to be 2024-25 where the two legitimate big beasts – Paris Saint-Germain and Manchester City – were on the brink. This time the top 14 looks like the Deloitte Money League (plus Galatasaray). The league stage will generally be like this. If you’re invested in Bayer Leverkusen, Olympiacos, and other Serie A teams, you’ll likely be engrossed in the drama. However, larger teams may have already completed the work.
match day 7
- Carat 1, Club Brugge 3
- Bodo/Glimt 0, Manchester City 4
- Real Madrid 2, Monaco 0
- Inter 0, Arsenal 1
- tottenham 1, borussia dortmund 1
- Sporting 1, Paris Saint-Germain 3
- Olympiacos 0, Bayer Leverkusen 1
- Villarreal 2, Ajax 0
- copenhagen 1, napoli 1
- Qarabag 0, Eintracht Frankfurt 2
- Galatasaray 2, Atletico Madrid 2
- Bayern Munich 3, Union SG 0
- Chelsea 4, Paphos 0
- Marseille 1, Liverpool 3
- Slavia Prague 0, Barcelona 2
- Atalanta 2, Athletic Club 1
- Juventus 1, Benfica 0
- Newcastle 2, PSV 0
There is one round left after these games and some things have been decided. Bayern Munich, Arsenal and Paris Saint-Germain all ensure themselves a place in the top eight and only goal difference separates the first two at the top of the table. Manchester City are three points ahead of Newcastle in ninth and close enough at home to a Galatasaray team who are certain to crack the top 24 but are unlikely to finish eighth, you’d think they’d be fine too. That means Barcelona, Inter, Real Madrid, Liverpool, Newcastle, Borussia Dortmund and Chelsea will be looking for a bye to the Round of 16 in the final week.
Further up the table, Villarreal and Eintracht Frankfurt have vitally important wins, meaning PSV, Athletic Club and Union Saint-Gillois lead the teams on the outside looking in. In theory every team below 33rd-placed Benfica has a chance and everyone up to 20th-placed Qarabag is at real risk. It looks like the biggest drama of the final round could be in Bruges, where Marseille will need to turn their four points into seven and have a shot at victory and the Paphos. Win at home to knock out Slavia Prague and the Cypriot champions have a very real chance of a knockout berth.
match day 8
- PSV 1, Bayern Munich 3
- napoli 1, chelsea 1
- Benfica 0, Real Madrid 2
- borussia dortmund 1, inter 2
- Liverpool 4, Qarabag 1
- Barcelona 3, Copenhagen 0
- Manchester City 2, Galatasaray 1
- Bayer Leverkusen 1, Villarreal 1
- arsenal 4, carat 0
- Union SG 2, Atalanta 1
- Club Brugge 0, Marseille 2
- eintracht frankfurt 1, tottenham 1
- Monaco 0, Juventus 0
- Atlético Madrid 3, Bodo/Glimt 0
- Athletic Club 2, Sporting 1
- Ajax 1, Olympiacos 0
- Paris Saint-Germain 3, Newcastle 1
- Paphos 1, Slavia Prague 0
Should we go straight to the table? Perhaps if you’re at all pathos-minded, you might want to look away. Oh, and I hate to break it to our Azeri audience, but you might need to avoid politeness at Anfield.
|
1 |
Bayern Munich |
7 |
1 |
0 |
19 |
22 |
|
2 |
armory |
7 |
1 |
0 |
18 |
22 |
|
3 |
Paris Saint Germain |
7 |
0 |
1 |
17 |
21 |
|
4 |
Manchester City |
6 |
2 |
0 |
15 |
20 |
|
5 |
barcelona |
6 |
1 |
1 |
15 |
19 |
|
6 |
Inter |
6 |
1 |
1 |
11 |
19 |
|
7 |
real Madrid |
6 |
1 |
1 |
11 |
19 |
|
8 |
liverpool |
6 |
0 |
2 |
11 |
18 |
|
9 |
newcastle united |
4 |
2 |
2 |
8 |
14 |
|
10 |
chelsea |
4 |
2 |
2 |
6 |
14 |
|
11 |
borussia dortmund |
4 |
2 |
2 |
5 |
14 |
|
12 |
Tottenham Hotspur |
3 |
4 |
1 |
4 |
13 |
|
13 |
Galatasaray |
4 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
13 |
|
14 |
Atletico Madrid |
3 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
13 |
|
15 |
monaco |
3 |
3 |
2 |
4 |
12 |
|
16 |
atlanta |
3 |
2 |
3 |
-3 |
11 |
|
17 |
juventus |
2 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
10 |
|
18 |
sporting |
3 |
1 |
4 |
-2 |
10 |
|
19 |
bayer leverkusen |
2 |
4 |
2 |
-6 |
10 |
|
20 |
napoli |
2 |
3 |
3 |
-4 |
9 |
|
21 |
eintracht frankfurt |
2 |
3 |
3 |
-5 |
9 |
|
22 |
athletic club |
3 |
0 |
5 |
-6 |
9 |
|
23 |
Union Saint-Gillois |
3 |
0 |
5 |
-11 |
9 |
|
24 |
Villarreal |
2 |
2 |
4 |
-3 |
8 |
|
25 |
Qarabag |
2 |
2 |
4 |
-6 |
8 |
|
26 |
Paphos |
2 |
2 |
4 |
-11 |
8 |
|
27 |
marseille |
2 |
1 |
5 |
0 |
7 |
|
28 |
Club Brugge |
2 |
1 |
5 |
-5 |
7 |
|
29 |
psv |
1 |
3 |
4 |
-4 |
6 |
|
30 |
Olympiacos |
1 |
2 |
5 |
-9 |
5 |
|
31 |
Copenhagen |
1 |
2 |
4 |
-10 |
5 |
|
32 |
Bodo/Shine |
1 |
2 |
5 |
-11 |
5 |
|
33 |
ajax |
1 |
2 |
5 |
-14 |
5 |
|
34 |
benfica |
1 |
1 |
6 |
-8 |
4 |
|
35 |
slavia prague |
0 |
2 |
6 |
-11 |
2 |
|
36 |
carat |
0 |
1 |
7 |
-18 |
1 |
Cross-referencing with My early predictions from September And, well, it’s great for Juventus. The opening games of their Serie A season have been some very interesting checks and the talent is there, but at the moment they feel like a club that can’t get out of their own way. In my assessment of Serie A as a whole, I am a little more optimistic with Napoli finishing in ninth place. From the early weeks in Italy it appears that there is only one specific Italian club in the Champions League and Inter is possibly one of the marked contenders.
Making these predictions, it is interesting that this time the group has come into the top eight, having a four-point difference from the rest. This is at least partly representative of where the European game is at this season. You can’t sense PSG bubbling beneath the surface. Perhaps something remarkable could happen at Atletico Madrid and perhaps Chelsea deserve a place in the conversation – Tuesday’s game against Barcelona might give us an idea – but this feels like a year to outperform the rest.
Another factor that is starting to shine in the league stage. It’s really about the fixture list. Last year PSG found themselves on the brink as they drew the two best teams from Pots One and Two – Bayern Munich, Manchester City, Atletico Madrid and Arsenal. This time you would probably argue that Atleti found themselves in the same position.
The reverse is equally true. No matter how you outline things from here, Paphos will be there or there on the final day of the league stage as they have to play the worst team in pot four, Carat and Slavia Prague. In terms of average coefficient, Atalanta got the easiest draw. That’s why a mid-table Serie A club that has already fired its manager should advance through the playoffs quite comfortably. Trying to bring fairness in any format in a competition like the Champions League is a fool’s errand, but one thing seems clear whenever we make predictions for this league stage. The defining moment of the campaign may not be the result achieved on the first night or the performance given on the eighth night. Maybe at the end of August, which ball will come out of which pot.
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