Lando Norris’s championship charge suffered a blow in the wake of the Las Vegas Grand Prix, when news broke that both his and McLaren teammate Oscar Piastri’s cars had been disqualified from the race due to technical violations.
Thus, Norris has reduced his lead in the championship over Piastri and now Max Verstappen to 24 points, joining the Australian on 366 points.
The 24-point advantage still leaves Norris in a commanding position, but it’s not as emphatic as the 30-point lead would have been had he not lost his second place in Las Vegas and the 18 points that went with it.
When Norris won the São Paulo Grand Prix, he knew he would not be able to win the title in Las Vegas, but would have to wait for Qatar – and the final sprint weekend of the campaign.
But can he still win the title this coming weekend after his DSQ, or will it go down to the season finale in Abu Dhabi? We’ve listed all the key numbers and scenarios below…
What is the situation in Qatar?
There are still 58 points on the table in 2025 – 25 for winning each of the two remaining grands prix in Qatar and Abu Dhabi, plus eight points for winning the sprint this weekend.
Simply put, if Norris finishes the Grand Prix in Qatar ahead of Piastri and Verstappen by 26 points or more, he will have done enough to win the title.
Can Norris get the job done in a sprint?
The good news for Norris is that he can capture the title in a number of ways – but one thing he Can not This has to be achieved during the Saturday sprint.
Even if he wins the sprint (scoring eight points) and his two rivals fail to score, Norris will finish ahead of them by 32 points with 50 remaining.
Taking the weekend as a whole, if Norris overtakes Piastri and Verstappen by two points, he will be declared champion (the gap will be 26 points with 25 points remaining).
Therefore, the title will be decided either after the Qatar Grand Prix or in Abu Dhabi.
What about possible ‘countback’ scenarios?
If Norris overtakes both Piastri and Verstappen by at least one point in Qatar, and wins the Grand Prix, the championship will be his.
The respective Grand Prix win numbers at that stage will be eight for Norris, seven for Piastri and six for Verstappen, meaning that a win for Piastri or Verstappen in Abu Dhabi and a non-score for Norris will not be enough to overcome the countback.
Indeed, Piastri would be tied on race wins, but would lose based on the number of second places (currently eight vs. three), while Verstappen would lose based on the number of wins (eight vs. seven).
If Norris beats Piastri by one point without winning a Grand Prix in Qatar, Piastri will not be out of the title race.
This is because Piastri can still win in Abu Dhabi and Norris still cannot score, meaning they will be tied on points, and Piastri will be champion based on the number of wins (eight or nine wins against seven).
If Norris beats Verstappen by one point in Qatar and Verstappen wins the Grand Prix (presumably Norris finished second in the Grand Prix and won the Sprint), Verstappen will not be eliminated.
This is because another win for Verstappen and a non-score for Norris in Abu Dhabi would bring them on equal points, but Verstappen would be the champion based on the number of wins (eight vs seven).
Then there will be some number-crunching to do over the Qatar weekend. But don’t worry – we’ll bring you new title permutations after the Qatar Sprint concludes, so stay tuned to F1.com.
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