BTC Tries to Reverse Bearish Mood, but Is $82K Still on the Table?

Bitcoin continues to trade within a decisive corrective structure, after a sharp bounce back and pressure against a key resistance block at $91K-$93K. Despite the recent recovery, the broader trend is tilted to the downside, and the daily chart shows that BTC is approaching a confluence zone where the next major directional move is likely to be determined.

bitcoin technical analysis

by Shayan

daily chart

Bitcoin remains inside a well-defined descending channel, with the price currently testing the mid-range of this structure. The recent rebound from the $80K-$83K demand zone marked the most aggressive buybacks of the past month, but the move stalled at the lower boundary of the green supply block around $90K-$93K.

The 100-day and 200-day moving averages continue to slope downwards, sitting above the market and acting as dynamic resistance. As long as the price remains below these MAs, the macro trend is bearish. The first major invalidation of bearish order flow will only occur with a clean retest of the $103K-$106K area, which sits at the intersection of the large golden supply zone and the previous breakdown structure.

At the moment, Bitcoin is struggling to break out of the falling trend line. Each advance into the $91K-$93K area has shown weak momentum, suggesting the market is not ready for a sustained breakout yet.

4-hour chart

On the 4-hour chart, the asset has reached a key resistance range, marked by the $92K bearish order block range and the multi-week descending trendline. If the current resistance holds, a pullback towards $86K-$88K becomes likely, and deep liquidity still remains over the $80K-$83K macro demand zone, which remains the strongest support on the charts.

Conversely, a daily close above the $93K level would open the way towards the $102K-$106K ineffectiveness zone, where the next major reaction is expected. The market is currently situated at an important decision point, and the next few weeks will determine whether this bounce develops into a full retracement or fades into a continuation of the broader downtrend.

On-Chain Analysis

by Shayan

While technical indicators highlight the $92K level as an immediate barrier, on-chain data reveals a formidable “second layer” of resistance slightly above based on the average cost of typical market participants.

The price obtained by the UTXO Edge Bands metric is essential for identifying support and resistance, as the actual price of a specific group often acts as a psychological barrier. When the spot price trades below these levels, these holders are exposed to unrealized losses. As a result, as prices rise back towards their average cost basis, these investors often look to exit at break-even, creating substantial sell-side pressure.

Currently, the chart highlights an important confluence of two distinct groups:

1-week to 1-month group (green line): Represents recent “fomo” buyers or those who caught the falling knife.

6 month to 12 month group (orange line): Represents medium-term holders who entered at the beginning of the year.

The actual prices of both these groups have converged similarly in the $96K-$97K range.

This junction acts as a huge resistance block. Even if Bitcoin manages to overcome the technical resistance at $92K, the rally may face exhaustion near $96K-$97K as these key groups look to cut losses and exit the market.

The overlap of these two age bands increases resistance, as it combines the nervousness of short-term traders with the dedication of medium-term investors. A decisive close above $97K is needed to signal that the market has absorbed this selling pressure and is ready for higher valuations.