The Albany government will need to significantly improve its climate policies to meet its recently announced 2035 emissions reduction target, according to an official estimate, otherwise it will miss it by a wide margin.
Government estimates released Thursday show that under current policies the country is on track to cut climate pollution by only 48% below 2005 levels by 2035 — well short of its target of cutting between 62% and 70% by that date.
Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen acknowledged the shortfall in the annual climate statement in parliament, saying “additional work” would be needed to meet the 2035 target.
He said some policies that were announced but not yet introduced were not counted in the estimates and the government would meet the target through “implementing, strengthening and taking forward” its policies.
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“It is normal for there to be a gap between projected emissions and the target 10 years into the future. As new policies are developed and implemented, the emissions outlook improves,” Bowen said. “That’s the goal – to take new initiatives and get things done.”
The Greens leader, Larissa Waters, said the projections were “devilish” and that “Labour’s addiction to coal, gas and forestry” meant it would miss the 2035 target announced in September by “a mile”.
“It’s possible the actual numbers are even worse, given the report does not take into account pricing factors in Queensland’s decision to keep coal in the energy mix for more than a decade,” he said.
Waters said the Labor Party should build on the deal reached with the Greens to pass reforms to environmental laws to “end deforestation across the country and stop approving new coal and gas projects”.
Projections show Labor is well placed to meet its 2030 emissions reduction target – a 43% cut from 2005 levels. Projections show that emissions will fall 42% below 2005 levels by the end of the decade.
But that assessment assumes the government will reach its target of 82% of electricity coming from renewable energy, which independent experts say is not guaranteed, partly due to transmission connection issues and supply chain delays for new solar and wind farms.
The annual progress report from the government agency, the Climate Change Authority, warns that the pace of renewable energy development will need to more than double over the next five years to reach the 2030 target.
Solar, wind and hydropower have provided about 42% of the electricity in the country’s main power grid over the past year. The government announced in July that it would expand the renewable underwriting program to take advantage of the falling costs of solar power and batteries and help meet the 2030 target.
Data from the third report released Thursday show national greenhouse gas emissions have begun to decline, remaining largely stable after a sharp decline during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The quarterly emissions report said climate pollution was down 2.2% in the last financial year. Bowen said it was the largest annual decline due to reduced fossil fuel use outside the initial year of the pandemic.
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Nearly half of the 9.9 million tonne reduction was due to increased solar and wind generation, pushing coal-fired power out of the system.
Pollution from power generation was reduced by 3.3% or 5 million tonnes. This reversed a brief increase in climate pollution from the power sector in the previous year.
Emissions from underground coal mines, heavy industry, farming, and burning gas for home heating and cooking declined slightly.
But pollution from transportation continued to increase due to greater use of diesel-powered vehicles and more people taking domestic flights.
Annual emissions as of June stood at 437.5 million tonnes – 28.5% below 2005 levels.
In response to Bowen’s climate statement, Dan Tehan, spokesperson for the Coalition for Energy and Emissions Reduction, focused on energy prices rather than the climate crisis. He accused the government of “betrayal” for not keeping a promise to reduce electricity bills by $275 between 2022 and 2025.
The coalition recently confirmed that it has dropped its support for the national target of cutting emissions to net zero by 2050.
The report released Thursday does not include emissions from Australian coal and gas exports overseas. The 2024 analysis found Australia was second only to Russia in terms of exported emissions.
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