As lead changes in knife-edge Honduran election, will Trump fail to get his way?

With just over two-thirds of ballots tallied in the Honduras election, the lead has changed.

The former vice president, Salvador Nasralla, has a small but potentially significant lead over his rival, Nasri Asfura, the conservative former mayor of Tegucigalpa. Yet Asfura’s National Party continues to inform journalists that they have enough numbers for an eventual victory.

The race remains on a knife edge.

In Washington, President Donald Trump has pinned his hopes on nothing less than an outright victory for Asfura and has sought to directly influence the race in support of his preferred candidate.

Whether it’s reporting that funds are being withheld from the impoverished Central American nation or making baseless allegations of electoral fraud, many in Honduras see the US President’s fingerprints on this election.

According to Josue Murillo, a Honduran political analyst, this smacks of the kind of behavior Honduras expected from Washington during the Cold War.

“No government should come here and treat us like a banana republic. That’s a lack of respect,” he says in a coffee shop in Tegucigalpa.

“To have Donald Trump say who we should elect is a violation of our autonomy as a nation, and it also affects our elections.”

Even as the National Party appears headed for victory, one of their leading figures is already celebrating.

On Monday, former President Juan Orlando Hernandez walked out of a Virginia prison a free man, having served just a year of a 45-year sentence on drug trafficking and weapons charges.

His release came as Trump urged Honduran voters to vote for Asfura.

Hernandez was unexpectedly pardoned by Trump, despite being found guilty by a New York court last year of running a drug conspiracy that brought more than 400 tons of cocaine into the United States.

His time in office was also marked by allegations of serious human rights violations by police and security forces, particularly against government critics.

So, when Hernández was arrested in 2022, then extradited to the United States and ultimately jailed, most Hondurans celebrated it as a rare moment of justice in a country with institutional impunity, especially for the political elite.

Trump has claimed the opposite, telling reporters on Air Force One that “the people of Honduras really thought (Juan Orlando Hernandez) was set up and it was a terrible thing”.

Honduran journalists who have covered the rise and fall of Hernández – from the moment he rose to national prominence after a coup in 2009 until his extradition – are struggling to recognize that description of an utterly despicable former president.

However, he still has supporters, especially in the National Party. And no one has been more vocal in maintaining his innocence or demanding a pardon than his wife, Ana García Carias.

I sat down with the former first lady, who described Mr. Hernandez’s release as “like being in a dream, like making a dream a reality.”

“We spoke to him this morning (Tuesday) and he is in a safe place. We were very happy, we called all the children on the phone with my mother-in-law and shared a moment of joy, laughter and prayer together.”

In terms of the future, the question now arises whether Mr. Hernandez will attempt to return to Honduras. Ms. García Carias says their possible return depends less on the outcome of the elections and more on whether authorities will guarantee their safety.

“It depends on the security guarantees they are given in this country,” she says.

“Day after day, this government – ​​which, thank God, is on its way – preaches hate speech about my husband that speaks of oppression against him. And that’s very dangerous for a former president – ​​to return to a place where they have generated hatred against him from the very top, from the President down to the lowest functionary.”

Ms García Carias claimed Mr Hernández was the victim of a “legal system”, the “deep state” and a “politically motivated witch hunt” by the Biden administration. I told her that the case against her husband was largely prepared by the Drug Enforcement Agency and the US Justice Department during Trump’s first term, not during President Biden’s term.

This was a point he immediately rejected.

“That’s what the prosecutors have claimed but I think that’s very illogical,” she argues. “Who in their right mind would bring a guy into meetings with the CIA, DEA to give classified information on national security?”

“There was a political campaign (against him) that involved people from the Biden administration,” he stressed, “and I think the facts were manipulated after the incident.”

Ms. García Carias publicly acknowledged the role of two prominent MAGA figures in obtaining her husband’s pardon: influential conservative political consultant Roger Stone – himself a beneficiary of a Trump pardon – and former Florida congressman, Matt Gaetz.

“They both got involved in this case,” she says. “I acknowledge their contributions and thank them. In fact, I spoke to Mr. Stone on his radio program on Sunday and he said he took a letter from Juan Orlando that he had written asking for a pardon on his birthday and delivered it directly to President Trump.”

Meanwhile, vote counting in Honduras will continue for another night.

As ballots continue to be tallied, it should soon become clear whether Trump will get his way in Honduras and see a new ally elected in the country, just as he pardoned an old ally.