Are consumers just tech debt to Microsoft?

I’m not saying it will definitely happen, but I think we may be on the cusp of a significant shift in Windows market share for consumer computers. It’s not going to fall by 2% in a year or anything, but I think there are some pieces coming together that could move the needle in a way that we haven’t seen in several decades. I have three things in mind.

Number one is that Microsoft doesn’t feel like a consumer tech company at all anymore. Yes, they’ve always been far more corporate than Apple or Google, but that’s really shown up in the last few years as they only seem to have energy for AI and web services. If you’re not a customer of a major business or a developer building the next AI-powered app, Microsoft doesn’t care about you.

I don’t see any enthusiasm there. The only noticeable thing they’ve added to Windows in the last five years is Copilot, and I have yet to find a single normal human being who enjoys using it. And it seems like all the changes in Windows 11 have gone over like a lead balloon. I don’t think they care about consumers’ Windows at all.

Secondly, the affordable MacBook is rumored to arrive in 2026. This would be a meaningfully cheaper MacBook that people could buy at the price that many Windows computers have been hovering around for years. At first, considering Apple’s focus on consumers and the price point that could attract more people, it seems like it could move the needle.

The third thing is gamers. Gamers use Windows extensively because they have to, not because they’re obsessed with it. He may have been fond of it in the 90s, but any passion has died down. Now it’s just the operating system they use to launch Steam. In early 2026, Valve is going to release Steam Machine after a few years of success with Steam Deck. We’ll see how they work there, but what they’re doing is releasing a machine that runs Windows games on Linux. And it drives them really well. Steam Deck has proven this over the years. If someone can package a version of Linux optimized for gamers, I think there are a meaningful number of PC gamers who will happily run it on their computers.

I don’t know if that’s going to happen or not. It’s always easy to be cynical and suggest everything will stay the same, and I understand that markets of this size take a long time to change. However, it feels like there are some things happening right now that will move the needle, and I’m excited to see what happens.