Escalating US threats against Venezuela are raising expectations of imminent military action as President Donald Trump steps up pressure on the Caracas regime and flexes its power in the Western Hemisphere.
Every public signal and warning from the President raises the danger that the US is on a difficult path to a military confrontation, which would be a huge political gamble given the public’s aversion to new foreign wars.
New concerns about the legality of any potential action against Venezuela and the administration’s deadly strikes against alleged drug-trafficking ships in the Caribbean that violate the laws of war are also adding to the conflict. Congressional committees are promising vigorous, bipartisan oversight of the attacks — a rare occurrence in Trump’s second term.
And in an extraordinary move over the Thanksgiving holiday, Trump appeared to undermine the argument that he is fighting regional cartels by offering amnesty to the former president of Honduras jailed in the US last year for delivering cocaine into the country.
Trump fanned expectations of impending war in Venezuela by warning on Thanksgiving Day that the US would “very soon” begin taking action to stop alleged drug trafficking networks on the land. On Saturday he announced that the poor, oil-rich country’s airspace should be considered closed. The world’s most powerful aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. A squadron of American ships led by Ford is deployed in the Caribbean Sea near Venezuela. Administration officials meanwhile have spent weeks preparing legal arguments for the crackdown against regional drug traffickers, which critics warn is inconsistent with legal and constitutional requirements.
Yet, as America potentially teeters on the brink of a new war, the administration has yet to provide the public with an evidence-based and legally detailed rationale for sending American sons and daughters into action.
This raises the possibility that the buildup and threats are part of a psychological pressure campaign to force President Nicolás Maduro to step down or to encourage officials or generals to remove him from office. Or a potential military confrontation with Venezuela may simply be a new sign that this administration sees few political, moral, legal, or constitutional restraints on doing as Trump wishes.
And even if this is all a ruse to initiate regime change peacefully, the authorities should soon consider what to do if it fails. If Trump withdraws the US military while Maduro is still in office, it will be a huge blow to Trump’s authority.
Trump confirmed for the first time on Sunday that he recently spoke by phone with Maduro, but did not say when or what they discussed. “I don’t want to comment on it; the answer is yes,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One. “I wouldn’t say whether it was good or bad. It was a phone call.”
A new US war or focused military action abroad would contradict one of the president’s core foreign policy principles – avoiding new foreign conflicts. And many polls show that Americans are opposed to attacking Venezuela. A CBS News poll last month found that 76% did not believe Trump had made his position there clear and only 13% saw the country as a major threat to American security.
In the past, some US administrations have made strong efforts in advance of military involvement to prepare the public for action and rally support behind the president – as was the case before the 2003 invasion of Iraq. But apart from vague comments about fighting drug cartels – some of which may exaggerate Venezuela’s place in the narcotics trade – senior officials have provided few explanations to the public.
Still, millions of Venezuelans will miss Maduro if he is ousted from power after years of repression that have impoverished a country with enormous economic potential and sent millions of refugees fleeing the conflict, including to the United States. There are some scenarios in which Maduro’s departure could benefit U.S. foreign policy and the region — though administration officials have provided little clarity on whether they plan any military action the day after. Failure to do so in Iraq and Afghanistan led to a foreign policy collapse. Some analysts fear regime change could lead to chaos and bloodshed in a fractured nation like Venezuela, potentially sending even more refugees to neighboring countries and the US.
However, Senator Markway Mullin defended Trump’s approach. He told CNN’s “State of the Union” program on Sunday that the president has invited Maduro to leave the country and that he is protecting the United States from drug traffickers. “He’s made it clear that we will not put troops into Venezuela,” the Oklahoma Republican told Dana Bash, although Trump has not publicly ruled out that possibility.
The controversy over the administration’s intentions in the region is heightened by what people familiar with the incident described to CNN’s Natasha Bertrand as a follow-up to a U.S. military strike on a suspected drug ship on September 2, since the initial attack did not kill all the people on board. Experts and some lawmakers have expressed concerns that the so-called double-tap strike would violate the laws of armed conflict, which prohibit the execution of an enemy combatant taken out of combat due to injury or surrender.
Details of the attacks were first reported by The Intercept and The Washington Post. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth insisted that all attacks on alleged drugs boats are lawful under US and international law, partly because the smugglers are designated terrorists by the US government. But Trump’s critics argue that the president is waging a war without obtaining congressional approval as required by the Constitution and is violating victims’ due process rights.
Democratic Senator Mark Kelly, a retired Navy captain and fighter jet pilot, said on “State of the Union” that given what he knew about the attack, he would not have followed orders to conduct a second strike. Kelly said, “If what has been reported is true, I have serious concerns about anyone in that chain of command crossing a line that they should never cross. We are not Russia. We are not Iraq.” “They’ve tripped themselves over trying to convince us on the Armed Services Committee how this is legal, not even sharing all the information, which is really disturbing. But going after survivors in the water, that’s clearly not legal.”
Kelly has been warned by the Pentagon that he could be recalled in uniform for court-martial after he was filmed with other Democratic lawmakers reminding military personnel that they are under no obligation to carry out illegal orders. Lawmakers have said Trump has put their safety at risk after accusing them of “treasonous conduct, punishable by death.” He has since denied that he was making “death threats” against the group.
The House and Senate Armed Services Committees have pledged to conduct rigorous oversight of the administration’s operations in the Caribbean.
Unease about the Trump administration’s intentions in Latin America is also being sparked by an extraordinary announcement from the President that he plans to pardon former Honduras President Juan Orlando Hernandez for just one year of his 45-year federal prison sentence for drug trafficking. Hernandez was found guilty of conspiring with the cartel as he smuggled 400 tons of cocaine into the US through Honduras and protected and enriched drug traffickers in his inner circle.
The president pardoning a leader who ran his country as a narco-state would seriously weaken his argument for using military force against Maduro – whom he has accused of the same crimes.
Virginia Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine said on CBS’s “Face the Nation,” “He was the leader of one of the largest criminal enterprises ever subject to conviction in American courts. And less than a year into his sentence, President Trump is pardoning him, suggesting that President Trump doesn’t care about narco-trafficking.” “If they don’t care about narco-trafficking… then what’s the Venezuela thing really about?”
The president insisted to reporters on Sunday that the conviction was a “Biden setup” and that the implication was that no one serving as president should face justice for crimes in office. He said, “You can take any country you want – if someone sells drugs in that country, it doesn’t mean you arrest the president and put him in jail for the rest of his life.”
Mullin said on “State of the Union” that there was “probably a goodwill gesture” in the president’s pardon offer, and that he was confident in his “natural” approach to foreign affairs.
Hernandez’s conviction by a jury given the due process previously offered by the United States is striking when compared to the fate of drug traffickers flown from the Caribbean Sea without clearly disclosing their identities to authorities.
The timing of Trump’s clemency move suggests an alternative explanation, as it came just before Honduras voted in the presidential election on Sunday. On Friday, Trump endorsed the populist outsider candidacy of Nasri “Tito” Asfura, who hails from the same conservative National Party as Hernandez. His dual interference appears to be an attempt to influence the elections, as he threatened in a Truth Social post that the US would not work with any other president other than Asfura.
This is not the first time that Trump has tried to use his power and influence to support leaders like MAGA in the Western Hemisphere. He imposed 50% tariffs on Brazil after prosecuting his friend and former President Jair Bolsonaro for trying to overthrow the election. He offered Argentina $40 billion in bailout on the condition that voters support the party of President Javier Meili, another ally, in snap elections. Trump has also aligned himself with El Salvador’s leader, President Nayib Bukele, who notoriously jailed exiles from the Trump administration’s executions, and who bills himself as “the best dictator in the world.” He has a falling out with Colombia’s leftist leader President Gustavo Petro.
There are legitimate foreign policy reasons why the United States would want closer ties with Latin American leaders, especially as it aims to reduce influence-building efforts in the region by Russia and China. The question now in Latin America is whether Trump is willing to use executive power and taxpayer cash as well as the sword to get the regime he wants in Venezuela.
<a href=