But if Musk’s reasoning behind keeping SpaceX private was to protect the Mars dream, is he abandoning this long-held goal?
not necessarily. It’s likely that Musk sees artificial intelligence as an important part of the Mars vision. Whether or not anyone believes the Optimus robot will become a viable product, Musk is confident. And he has talked about sending robots to Mars to make way for the first human settlers.
Musk also believes that a larger and more financially strong SpaceX is necessary to colonize Mars. He understands that NASA will not pay for it, because the civilian space agency is in the business of exploration, not disposal. For several years now, he has expressed that creating a self-sustaining settlement on Mars would require approximately 1 million tons of supplies. That’s about 1,000 ships, and including refueling, at least 10,000 starship launches. The launch cost alone is $1 trillion, at $100 million per launch.
Musk has often expressed concern that there may be a limited window for colonizing Mars. Financial markets may collapse. Perhaps even worse is the pandemic. Perhaps a large asteroid will hit the planet. SpaceX going public now is a prerequisite that it can use the resources to make Mars City One a reality, over its lifetime. He is 54 years old.
Of course, the plan is not without risk. If AI is a bubble, then ten years from now, SpaceX could be sitting on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of satellites in space that have limited use. Maybe shareholders would rather SpaceX make humans millionaires than make them multiplanetary.
But Musk has never shied away from risks. So doubling his most successful asset at this moment is exactly what one would expect him to do.
<a href