A shaky year for American EVs could set the tone for 2026

If you like both electric vehicles and emotional roller coasters, 2025 was an excellent year. However, for those of us whose nerves are already quite frayed, the ups and downs of the past 12 months were a little hard to digest.

In 2025, we saw the introduction of new, compelling models like the Lucid Gravity and the refreshed Nissan Leaf, the latter available at a price on par with its internally combustive competition. From a product availability perspective, 2025 was the year the EV market started to seem more mature and less frenetic.

But 2025 also saw new heights of anti-EV vitriol during a particularly painful election cycle. The means of propulsion or the badge on the hood of your commuter machine suddenly became an indicator of your political affiliation. Simply put, the car you drive is now a political statement, and it’s the latest unprecedented situation in a long and serious series of unprecedented situations. Yes, it’s been a long year, and the pessimism of 2025 will certainly take us to 2026, but all hope is not lost for EVs.

Tesla and DOGE impact

We’ve certainly seen some civic-minded CEOs in the past as auto executives have a long history of mixing their corporate interests with their political propaganda. Chrysler CEO Lee Iacocca was once considered a possible presidential candidate. However, we’ve never seen the kind of ass-kissing and nepotism we knew about in this year’s volatile friendship between Elon Musk and President Trump.

Musk was (highly) active in the Trump campaign, and he wasted no time in describing it as government overspending. While the efficacy of the government efficiency department is a matter of debate, it has certainly proven to be quite effective in liquidating the accounts of Tesla investors. Tesla’s share price fell by nearly half between January and March. Things didn’t change until Musk left DOGE in May.

Since then, Tesla’s price has returned to its highest level before the DOGE debacle. However, it has not been sold. Q1 deliveries declined 13 percent, then declined 14 percent in Q2. Deliveries rose 7 percent in Q3 as everyone rushed to buy before EV credits ran out, but profits fell 37 percent. Tesla’s market share in the U.S. electric vehicle sector has halved, prompting perennial pitchman Musk to sell anything from AI agents to spandex-clad robots to distract from the numbers.

And it’s clearly working. Musk’s $1 trillion pay package was approved by Tesla shareholders without any concerns. This could make him the world’s first billionaire, but only if he meets aggressive goals and deadlines for the sale, an area where the man has struggled in the past.

big, beautiful sales growth

Elon Musk and Donald Trump’s bromance wasn’t the only fallout from his second term. So, too, does the $7,500 federal EV incentive that ended in September as part of President Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill.” This actually led to an increase in short-term sales before the deadline. Many manufacturers rode that wave and set new records for EV sales, but a worrying situation is coming.

We’ll still have to wait a bit to see how bad Q4 EV sales are going to be, but the early signs aren’t looking good. J.D. Power’s October report said EV sales were at a record high in September, accounting for 12.9 percent of new vehicle sales in the US. In October, after the credits ended, they dropped to just 5.2 percent.

This is a worrying decline, and it’s already impacting product planning.

EV production cuts

When I was in Japan last month taking an early look at some of Honda’s next-generation hybrid cars, I didn’t expect to hear company executives talk about the midterm U.S. elections. But that’s what CEO Toshihiro Mibe had in mind. He is closely watching US voting trends to determine the nature of the company’s upcoming releases.

Mieb said Honda has already canceled some EV plans in the US, focusing instead on a wider selection of hybrid models. This is not the only company to do this. RAM also canceled its 1500 EV truck, but a hybrid version is still on the way.

Scout Motors is also focusing more on its extended-range hybrid offerings. The company’s initial pitch was a fully electric truck and SUV. Recently, it has been prioritizing its extended-range EV options based on feedback from its 130,000 pre-orderers. 80 percent of them want an onboard generator, an add-on that could prove to be a saving grace for this EV startup.

There is reason for optimism

Some manufacturers may be watering down their EV aspirations, but others are moving forward. There’s a great collection of battery-powered machines coming out next year, and it’s worth getting excited about.

Again, the 2026 Nissan Leaf should be an extremely popular choice as its production continues to increase. It’s already making waves at dealerships, and with a starting price of under $30,000, it’ll be hard to beat. But, Chevrolet is going to try with a refreshed Bolt EV for the same money.

If you have more to spend, you have more options. BMW’s luxurious iX3 crossover SUV is coming soon, as well as the electric CLA sedan and GLC SUV.

However, the most anticipated EV of the year may be the Rivian R2. The electric SUV will join the luxurious R1S and R1T, expanding Rivian’s presence in the segment while also hopefully increasing its market reach. The starting price of $45,000 makes it much more attainable than any of the company’s previous offerings.

If the prospect of a fun, affordable SUV from Rivian doesn’t get you excited for the coming year in EVs, perhaps some promising news from Europe will. After cutting its own EV incentive program in 2023, Germany’s EV sales fell sharply, falling by 28 percent in 2024. Pay attention to the predictions of the demise of EVs by many local pundits.

However, since then, EV sales have slowly bounced back, and recently they have been growing rapidly, with German road traffic agency KBA saying the total number of newly registered electric vehicles increased by almost 50 percent in October (year-on-year). Electric cars now make up 19 percent of the market there, and that’s despite declining Tesla sales.

There is no guarantee that the US market will make a similar comeback, especially if the anti-EV political message continues. However, I have decided that I will remain optimistic, as tiring as it may be these days.