‘A revolving door’: Last-minute scramble to fill Gavin Newsom’s shoes in California

The growing number of Democratic candidates vying to replace term-limited Gavin Newsom as California governor has stunned political activists.

“It’s more wide open than I’ve ever seen in 25 years,” said Steven Mavglio, a Sacramento-based Democratic strategist.

The challenge for those running will be to prove to voters that they can deal with California’s cost-of-living crisis while also filling the high-profile void that Newsom will leave as a national leader in Democrats’ fight against President Donald Trump.

Last week, Representative Eric Swalwell, who made his name as an anti-Trump firebrand in the House of Representatives and launched a short-lived bid for the White House in 2020, appeared on ABC’s “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” Announcing his campaign for governor, he told Kimmel that California “needs a fighter and a protector.”

Billionaire Tom Steyer, who also ran unsuccessfully for president in 2020, announced his campaign a day earlier. Steyer, who is well known in progressive circles for his environmental advocacy, spent millions in support of Newsom’s recent Proposition 50 redistricting effort.

A spokesperson for Steyer said, “Everyone in this race is talking about affordability, but Californians care about results, and who will be able to get it done when it comes to reducing costs. And Tom has a record of working for California, even when real politicians couldn’t.”

Both Swalwell and Steyer join a crowded field of prominent Democrats like former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa.

“I am a proven problem solver,” Villaraigosa told ABC News in a statement.

Villaraigosa said, “As Speaker of the California Assembly, I provided affordable health care to millions of children and I passed the toughest assault weapons ban in America. As mayor, I reduced crime by 50% and increased our school graduation rate by 60%. No other candidate for governor has delivered such results.”

Villaraigosa is running for the post among other California politicians, including former Representative Katie Porter and former California Attorney General Xavier Becerra, who was also Health and Human Services secretary in the Biden administration.

“Secretary Becerra is the only candidate in this race to take on the Trump administration and win,” a Becerra campaign spokesperson told ABC News in a statement. “Secretary Becerra, who has filed lawsuits 122 times to protect Californians as Attorney General, has delivered affordable care for millions of people, and he has negotiated lower drug prices to save California families thousands of dollars.”

Strategists are surprised that neither candidate has established himself as a clear leading contender, indicating some instability in the race. Lead a state of approximately 40 million people.

“This is one of the most consequential races in the entire country that no one has heard about yet,” said Democratic strategist Danielle Sendejas. “There’s a lot of discussion about who will be the next governor.”

“Historically Vulnerable Area”

Democratic strategist Matt Rodriguez believes the reason the primaries were so crowded is because no candidate is very strong.

“I think it’s a very weak area, a historically weak area,” he said.

California employs a “jungle” or “top-two” primary, in which there is a non-partisan primary for all candidates, with the top two candidates in the primary moving on to a runoff in November, regardless of party.

Rodriguez said that having so many Democratic candidates in the jungle primary “definitely gives a Republican the advantage of getting in the top two. At some point, there are only so many Democratic voters to split here.”

Mavglio said it is “possible, not possible” to have two Republicans run in the general election.

“We’ve seen this only a few times in legislative races, where the party that actually has the majority doesn’t make it to the November election because of strange events like this,” he said.

Less chances for Republican candidate

John Fleischman, a GOP strategist and former executive director of the California Republican Party, said that even if a Republican ran in the general election, they would have little chance of winning outright.

“The most important thing to remember in California is probably that if you have a general election between a Republican and a Democrat, unless there’s a major scandal on the Democrat, we’re a blue state,” Fleischman said.

“It probably only gets more interesting when two Democrats make the runoff,” Fleischman said.

There are currently two major Republican candidates in the race, one of whom is former Fox News host Steve Hilton.

“A crowded Democratic field means those candidates will have months to fight each other and defend the status quo, while Steve Hilton is focused on changing it,” Hilton campaign manager Matt Sipilowski told ABC News in a statement.

The statement continued, “Californians are tired of the highest levels of poverty in the country, skyrocketing housing costs, failing schools, and a government that serves special interests instead of working families. Steve is running to make California affordable, safe, and full of opportunity again.”

The other leading Republican candidate is Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, who is emphasizing his law enforcement background to define himself as someone who is tough on crime.

Bianco campaign spokesman Rick Gorka told ABC News in a statement, “Every Democrat who is currently governor is hoping for a more moderate version of that narcissist to happen and Californians can’t afford for that to happen. Sheriff Bianco offers a new way to move forward and public polling proves his campaign is resonating with voters.”

a still volatile race

Others may still jump to the right, like tech entrepreneur John Slavet, who filed FEC paperwork on Friday and told ABC News he plans to launch his campaign early next month.

Mavglio described the race as “volatile” and a “revolving door”.

Vice President Kamala Harris was considering a bid after her defeat in last year’s presidential election, but she announced in July that she was no longer considering running. And U.S. Senator Alex Padilla – who strategists say would probably have cleared the field had he bid – decided not to run earlier this month.

Mavglio said, “We have people who say they’re running and drop out of the race. We have people who were attracted to thinking about running, like Padilla and Harris, and then choose not to run. So it’s really hard to track.”

Two politicians – Lieutenant Governor of California Eleni Kounalakis and former President Pro Tempore of the California State Senate Tony Atkins – initially announced their candidacies, but dropped out of the race shortly thereafter.

Another rumored potential Democratic contender is billionaire Rick Caruso, who lost the 2022 Los Angeles mayoral race to Karen Bass. While Caruso has deep pockets and some name recognition, he was a Republican until 2019, which could alienate the progressive wing of his new party.

And while Steyer and Caruso both have cash, strategists say they’ll have to use it wisely to run successful campaigns.

“Self-funders don’t do well here. That doesn’t mean they can’t, but they generally don’t,” Rodriguez said, pointing to Michael Huffington in the 1994 Senate race, Al Checchi in the 1998 gubernatorial election and Caruso’s unsuccessful bid in 2022.

Trouble for those ahead in the early race

Porter, the early frontrunner and the only major female candidate in the field, appeared to be gaining momentum after receiving endorsements from the progressive PAC EMILY’s List and several statewide labor unions. Sendejas acknowledged that Porter likely had an early advantage due to his name recognition and the fact that he is “beloved in many progressive circles.”

“Katie is a fighter, a single mother of three, and a fierce champion for working families who took on the Trump administration and self-serving CEOs in Congress and won,” Porter campaign spokesman Peter Opitz told ABC News in a statement.

But recent controversy surrounding Porter’s conduct has solidified her initial lead, suggesting she may not be the same The candidate is stronger than originally thought.

one in video that went viral Online last month, Porter had a controversial exchange with a reporter, going so far as to threaten to end the interview. one more Video surfaced Shortly thereafter Porter was shown yelling at an employee.

“What goes up must come down,” Sendejas said of Porter.

In his first appearance since the video surfaced, Porter apologized for the outburst.

“I want people to know that I understand what I did was not good,” Porter told the audience. UC Student and Policy Center in Sacramento in October. “I’m not mincing words about it, but I also want people to understand that I’m in this fight because I will not back down and will not retreat an inch when people are hurting Californians. And both of those things can be true at the same time.”

Rodriguez hopes that the ability for a candidate to successfully define themselves as someone who can lead California in going head-to-head with Trump “will be the whole thing.”

“I think Trump is going to be huge here,” Rodriguez said. “Everything is going to be Trump.”