3 Keys to Victory vs. the Giants on Monday Night Football in Week 13 

When it comes to offensive line play, one-on-ones tend to be individual losses. Defenses also get paid. That said, a key part of offensive line play is an old Scaranchia-ism: seeing the game through a pair of eyes. By keeping all five blockers on the same page, the group can often play above their perceived talent level. Last week, the Patriots had some struggles with Cincinnati’s blitz package in that regard (Maye: 0-of-5 vs. cover zero). On the Pats’ final third down, when LB Barrett Carter came up unblocked, the Bengals generated a free runner, giving Mayes little chance to complete the pass. Just getting a hat on a hat goes a long way in those situations.

As we turn the page on the Giants, keeping Maye safe and causing more disruption along the defensive line will be key to extending the Patriots’ nine-game winning streak on Monday night.

Despite their 2-10 record, we shouldn’t count on the Giants, who have an interim head coach (Mike Kafka) and defensive coordinator (Charlie Bullen). The Giants are in this transition phase as they are failing to close out winnable games, with a league-high five losses after leading by double digits, breaking an NFL record, including a 34-27 overtime loss to the Lions in which they led 10-0, 17-7 and 27-17. The Giants have lost three consecutive one-score games to the Bears (24–20), Packers (27–20), and Lions (34–27 in OT). So, they have been competitive in recent weeks.

It also makes it difficult for the Giants’ new coaching staff to prepare, as each coach brings his own take on things. For example, the Giants ran two different trick plays for touchdowns against the Lions last week, while this is New York’s first game with new defensive play-caller Charlie Bullen, so the Patriots will have to be ready for anything this week. It also looks like first-round pick QB Jackson Dart will be returning after a two-game absence due to injury, so that’s another added bummer.

Let’s analyze the chess match between the Giants and Patriots at Gillette Stadium on Monday Night Football.

Keys to offense: Attack veterans, run defense, adjust to changes under interim DC Charlie Bullen

The main reason for the Giants’ losing record is that their defense, in which they invested heavily, is performing poorly this season.

The Giants were not planning on being 28th in DVOA and 30th in points allowed (27.8 ppg), while having the second-largest payroll in the NFL on defense. After adding third overall pick Abdul Carter to a defensive front that already included Kayvon Thibodeaux (the No. 5 overall pick in 2022), Brian Burns and three-time Pro Bowl DT Dexter Lawrence, the idea was to create a dangerous front that would dominate the line of scrimmage.

Instead, the Giants have a below-average pass rush: 15th in pass-rush win rate (38%), 23rd in pressure rate (32.6%), and 23rd in sack rate (5.5%). New York also has the worst run defense in football, ranking last in rush EPA, rush success rate and yards per rush (5.9). With all the losing streaks, the Giants struggled on defense and parted ways with former head coach Brian Daboll and defensive coordinator Shane Bowen.

Even though it hasn’t gone according to plan this season, you have to take the Giants pass rush seriously. Burns, Carter and Lawrence are talented rushers who can break up games (Thibodeau is out with a shoulder injury). Burns and Carter rank 13th and 14th, respectively, in pass-rush win rate among edge rushers, while Lawrence is a disruptive pocket-denter — on paper, it’s a legitimate trio. The Patriots’ revamped offensive line will need to gel quickly to hold off the planned rush, while offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels may need to help the backup on the left side of the line.

The Patriots will also have to be prepared for some uncertainty on defense under the new play-caller. Bullen’s coaching gurus include defensive coordinators Vance Joseph (Broncos) and Matt Burke (Texans), whose systems share roots with the man/match-heavy defense the Giants are currently deploying. New York ranked second in man coverage rate (41%), sixth in single-high safety rate (60.7%), and played match-quarters in transition, with man coverage principles down the field.

Head coach Mike Vrabel said this week, “I think the formation should be somewhat similar. It would be really hard to make a complete change from under front to over in base.” “We’ve always got to be prepared for things they might do, and maybe more pressure on initial downs, less pressure on third downs, or whatever those things might be. But I have no idea how they’re going to plan on calling it. We’ll just have to see and make sure we’re prepared for whatever comes up throughout the game.”

When it comes to the Giants’ run defense struggles, it’s a weakness-on-weakness matchup between New York’s run defense and New England’s rush attack. Despite all five of their starters being healthy, the Patriots offense is 30th in rush EPA (-0.18) this season. The Pats have mastered gap schemes like duos and fullback lead plays that have troubled the Giants, but New England is averaging just 4.0 yards per rush when using those man-blocking schemes (20th in the NFL).